GOLD - Could It Be Distribution? 💭

Alternate count here and its funny how one or two candles can make you want to turn the picture upside down and see how it fits. I was very confident in my bullish count just days ago but now I'm taking another look.

So looking at GOLD1! here I really do not like this current weekly candle for the bullish case. I had previously made an EW count to 3.5K but I'm back in the learning chair again - something doesn't smell quite right.

And looking from a Wyckoffian perspective this could well be distribution here with potential UT Upthrust on much lower volume then BC Buying Climax.

So lets not beat about the bush - thats a very bearish shooting star printing right here with a gap. 2 days to go till the candle close but it is ugly - and also there was another big star 2 candles previous showing a lot of sell pressure coming in.

Also piercing through the Bollinger Bands and printing such a bearish candle is not good at all.

And well - this is why I dont have a position in GOLD. I haven't found it to be the easiest chart but if this is UT and not a wave 1 breakout then GOLD could be heading into a very long and tedious bear market.

So i'll be very interested to see how it reacts to the 50WMA on next touch and I'll probably wait to see if it trends under because if it does then I'll favour the bearish count.

Really not sure on this one especially as GOLD is printing inverted to equity indexes. 🤔

Not advice.

코멘트:

Opening up a small swing trade short on GOLD here.