Selling order activated / Gold Targeting #1,600.80 extension
Gold's general commentary: Gold is under fair Technical Bearish dominance visible on Hourly 4 chart clearing the Neutral consolidation (necessity for Short-term rebound is still ignored by Gold) is about to price an Annual Low’s below #1,678.80 Medium-term Support. However it is important to consider that Buying near Monthly rejection points is Technically not advised, especially when RSI on Daily and Monthly chart are not in clear Oversold condition and have potential to proceed with further Selling. The present candle series are similar to the July - October #2016 period when Gold Trades mostly sideways within #1,302.20 - #1,330.40 every Month in continuation on a new level of uncertainty, similar to current situation right now, before eventually dropping to #1,250.40 in November. This suggests than only if #1,700.80 - #1,712.80 Resistance cluster is crossed, I can say with certainty that Buying momentum can be established and is in continuation (configuration which is far away).
Technical analysis: Both Technically and Fundamentally on the Medium-term, Buying is not favoured unless those benchmarks break. I am looking to complete a full oscillation towards #1,600.80 psychological mark, crossing lines and pressure points can be determined as variance allows. Subsequently, the current consolidation and another aggressive takedown should come as no Technical surprise. Second Lower Low’s extension is expected next at #1,652.80 which may be filled on Intra-day basis. I am Trading currently on pure Bearish gradient as Price-action is Trading on the Hourly 4 chart where all indicates another Short-term Selling opportunity, with hawkish Fed aftermath adding decent boost on DX and keeping Bond Yields near #3-Week Resistance zone (above Bullish Gap fill). My model require to close one Daily candle below the #1,678.80 (former Support) Resistance though. Strong rejection followed the Bearish U.S. opening Bell since DX (my main market at the moment regarding correlations) is in uptrend continuation, breaking all Resistances as I don’t think that other correlating assets will have any strong impact since strong Selling pressure from DX will remain (minimum for #15 more sessions), which could alter or at least postpone the general uptrend potential on Gold. My estimations shows even #1,600.80 psychological mark test and below (representing Weekly chart’s Descending Channel variance), and with current Selling configuration, I should be expecting #1.588.80 aswell as an potential Medium-term Target.
Fundamental analysis: It is Highly is important to note is that following every multi-Month Bearish cycle on Gold, Bullish rally on DX was taking place subsequently. One chart is of High importance to my outlook and caught my attention. Name is: Fed’s Repurchase Agreements (units: Millions of U.S. Dollars). If one consults the chart, it resembles that every repurchase agreements number is increasing greatly ahead of every (is messenger of) financial crisis, means that Fed already understand that something big is coming and they may not prevent the huge disaster by printing currency out of thin air. What is evident on the chart, is that from #2005 - #2007 Year, repurchases number is strongly increasing (ahead of #2.008 U.S. Housing market crash / crisis) and as #Q1 - #Q4 passed by, number was decreasing. Lately, since Year of #2019 (virus outbreak), repurchases number is strongly increasing (strong ATH), and is currently still rising, means that crisis world is entering will be worse than those in the past #100 Years. Regardless, I am confident that Gold won’t “shine” as traditional safe-haven, and isn’t representing sole hedge asset against the Inflation (aswell on ATH). That’s why, I stick to my Medium and Long-term projection that Gold is timed for aggressive takedown and multi-Month Bearish cycle.
My position: Even though it is Friday's session (weekend break ahead), I allowed myself additional risk since I am more than satisfied with my Trading results and engaged Selling order with #1,662.80 as an entry point. Optimal Target is #1,640.80, however I will look to alter my order before since my model requires reaching weekend break without any engaged orders (unless I move the Stop-loss on breakeven and practically have risk-free Trade on my hands).
Technical analysis: Both Technically and Fundamentally on the Medium-term, Buying is not favoured unless those benchmarks break. I am looking to complete a full oscillation towards #1,600.80 psychological mark, crossing lines and pressure points can be determined as variance allows. Subsequently, the current consolidation and another aggressive takedown should come as no Technical surprise. Second Lower Low’s extension is expected next at #1,652.80 which may be filled on Intra-day basis. I am Trading currently on pure Bearish gradient as Price-action is Trading on the Hourly 4 chart where all indicates another Short-term Selling opportunity, with hawkish Fed aftermath adding decent boost on DX and keeping Bond Yields near #3-Week Resistance zone (above Bullish Gap fill). My model require to close one Daily candle below the #1,678.80 (former Support) Resistance though. Strong rejection followed the Bearish U.S. opening Bell since DX (my main market at the moment regarding correlations) is in uptrend continuation, breaking all Resistances as I don’t think that other correlating assets will have any strong impact since strong Selling pressure from DX will remain (minimum for #15 more sessions), which could alter or at least postpone the general uptrend potential on Gold. My estimations shows even #1,600.80 psychological mark test and below (representing Weekly chart’s Descending Channel variance), and with current Selling configuration, I should be expecting #1.588.80 aswell as an potential Medium-term Target.
Fundamental analysis: It is Highly is important to note is that following every multi-Month Bearish cycle on Gold, Bullish rally on DX was taking place subsequently. One chart is of High importance to my outlook and caught my attention. Name is: Fed’s Repurchase Agreements (units: Millions of U.S. Dollars). If one consults the chart, it resembles that every repurchase agreements number is increasing greatly ahead of every (is messenger of) financial crisis, means that Fed already understand that something big is coming and they may not prevent the huge disaster by printing currency out of thin air. What is evident on the chart, is that from #2005 - #2007 Year, repurchases number is strongly increasing (ahead of #2.008 U.S. Housing market crash / crisis) and as #Q1 - #Q4 passed by, number was decreasing. Lately, since Year of #2019 (virus outbreak), repurchases number is strongly increasing (strong ATH), and is currently still rising, means that crisis world is entering will be worse than those in the past #100 Years. Regardless, I am confident that Gold won’t “shine” as traditional safe-haven, and isn’t representing sole hedge asset against the Inflation (aswell on ATH). That’s why, I stick to my Medium and Long-term projection that Gold is timed for aggressive takedown and multi-Month Bearish cycle.
My position: Even though it is Friday's session (weekend break ahead), I allowed myself additional risk since I am more than satisfied with my Trading results and engaged Selling order with #1,662.80 as an entry point. Optimal Target is #1,640.80, however I will look to alter my order before since my model requires reaching weekend break without any engaged orders (unless I move the Stop-loss on breakeven and practically have risk-free Trade on my hands).
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
