Well the new channel points back down to test the old uptrend. Long-term commodity channel that was from 2012 shows the Covid/Putin excursions that were responsible for excessive QE and government expenditures for war on whatever. WAR is such an overused concept. Anyway the bear channel, should it hold, needs to first get 1724 out of the way. 1650 would complete the case. This is largely a USDX issue.
Other currency pairs are not bearish yet. The combination of maximizing currency strength with the backdrop of prior overprinting (MMT) will be resolved here. Guns and butter are currency strength vs tax receipts. The major trend is up but the geopolitics of the moment and obvious currency abuse/debasement are at issue. My thought would be an outcome to the downside at the intersection 1650 if the shorts have the stomach for it and if the EURO, Yen, Pound stay soft to absorb inflation for the US. This monetary policy will grind equities further which may attract buyers. Failing that, we all get some cheap gold in the 1500s. 1450 is possible, but not likely unless the currency war gets out of hand. That would crush stocks especially resource stocks.
See the two gold charts done in the past below.
Other currency pairs are not bearish yet. The combination of maximizing currency strength with the backdrop of prior overprinting (MMT) will be resolved here. Guns and butter are currency strength vs tax receipts. The major trend is up but the geopolitics of the moment and obvious currency abuse/debasement are at issue. My thought would be an outcome to the downside at the intersection 1650 if the shorts have the stomach for it and if the EURO, Yen, Pound stay soft to absorb inflation for the US. This monetary policy will grind equities further which may attract buyers. Failing that, we all get some cheap gold in the 1500s. 1450 is possible, but not likely unless the currency war gets out of hand. That would crush stocks especially resource stocks.
See the two gold charts done in the past below.
