Gold steadies

1월 9일

Gold was a tad firmer this morning while silver was effectively unchanged. This is despite a rally in the US dollar which took back a chunk of yesterday’s losses. The dollar appears to have found a floor and has rallied sharply since Christmas. This is something of a turnaround given that the Dollar Index lost 6% between early October and the end of December. The dollar’s pull-back over the fourth quarter of 2023 provided something of a tailwind for precious metals. If the greenback continues to recover, then this may turn into a headwind. Gold and silver fell sharply yesterday morning as they continued to react to Friday’s strong payroll data and the concomitant rally in bond yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is back above 4.0% and this is weighing on asset prices, although yields had ceded ground by the time US equity markets opened. If Thursday’s CPI comes in above expectations, then we may see bond yields rally further, the dollar strengthen and precious metals fall again.
If so, then gold’s support area between $2,000 and $2,010 becomes crucial, as a significant and prolonged break below here would put a serious dent in bullish sentiment.