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GBP/USD Eyes Bullish Impulse as Retail Sales Outshine Weak PMI

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The Pound Sterling is under pressure as a dismal market mood and poor UK PMI data overshadow the impact of upbeat Retail Sales. In Friday's London session, the GBP/USD pair remains on the back foot against most currencies, except for the Euro, despite stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data for May from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS). The pair’s performance is also influenced by weak preliminary S&P Global/CIPS data for June.

While the UK Retail Sales data for May was positive, the broader market sentiment and disappointing PMI figures have kept the Pound Sterling from gaining traction. Meanwhile, the Euro has shown strength, and despite the Pound's lackluster performance, the correlation between the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs remains strongly positive. This suggests that if the Euro continues to rise, the Pound may eventually follow suit with a bullish impulse.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading within a demand area with notable support. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that institutional investors, or "smart money," are holding long positions on the GBP, providing further bullish potential.

Additionally, historical seasonality trends for the GBP show a typically bearish period during this time of year, with the exception of last year when the price continued to rise. Given these mixed signals, traders should remain cautious but optimistic about the potential for a rebound in the Pound Sterling.

We can see also a RSI Divergence on the H1 timeframe