GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Though under pressure, support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in motion in May. Neighbouring resistance, should we see an attempt at recovery, can be found in the form of a trendline (1.7191). A violation of support, nevertheless, puts forward a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
A few pips south of supply at 1.2649/1.2799 (prior demand), a double-top pattern formed at 1.2647, with May 13 consuming the neckline (April 21 low 1.2247) and establishing a potential take-profit target (purple) around 1.1855.
In recent sessions, the double-top neckline at 1.2247 has had its nerve tested. However, recent buying does not imply the double-top pattern will fail; what it does mean, though, is traders are able to sell this market at a healthier risk/reward ratio, as protective stop-loss orders are generally positioned above pattern peaks: 1.2647.
H4 timeframe:
Sterling sunk vs. the greenback on Wednesday, hurling candle action to lows at 1.2204, a whisker short of healthy demand from 1.2170/1.2204 and trendline support (1.2075). Breaking lower here possibly liberates sellers, with limited demand visible on this timeframe until channel support (prior resistance – 1.2643).
H1 timeframe:
Heading into US trade Wednesday witnessed a pronounced intraday sell-off, a move that ousted 1.23, demand at 1.2295/1.2266 and the 100-period simple moving average. Momentum slowed, however, once the pair linked with demand (prior supply) at 1.2220/1.2199, consequently tempting buyers back into the market.
1.2295/1.2266 stands as possible supply today, though it is also worth taking into account we could see a whipsaw form to 1.23 here.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price holds 1.1904/1.2235, despite positioned against the major trend.
Sellers on the daily timeframe still have a hand in the fight around the double-top resistance neckline at 1.2247.
H4 price formed a bottom a few pips shy of demand at 1.2170/1.2204 and trendline support.
H1 price lurks under supply at 1.2295/1.2266 after rebounding from demand at 1.2220/1.2199.
In a nutshell, monthly and H4 price suggest buyers may govern movement, while daily and H1 price indicate we could be navigating lower levels today.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Though under pressure, support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in motion in May. Neighbouring resistance, should we see an attempt at recovery, can be found in the form of a trendline (1.7191). A violation of support, nevertheless, puts forward a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
A few pips south of supply at 1.2649/1.2799 (prior demand), a double-top pattern formed at 1.2647, with May 13 consuming the neckline (April 21 low 1.2247) and establishing a potential take-profit target (purple) around 1.1855.
In recent sessions, the double-top neckline at 1.2247 has had its nerve tested. However, recent buying does not imply the double-top pattern will fail; what it does mean, though, is traders are able to sell this market at a healthier risk/reward ratio, as protective stop-loss orders are generally positioned above pattern peaks: 1.2647.
H4 timeframe:
Sterling sunk vs. the greenback on Wednesday, hurling candle action to lows at 1.2204, a whisker short of healthy demand from 1.2170/1.2204 and trendline support (1.2075). Breaking lower here possibly liberates sellers, with limited demand visible on this timeframe until channel support (prior resistance – 1.2643).
H1 timeframe:
Heading into US trade Wednesday witnessed a pronounced intraday sell-off, a move that ousted 1.23, demand at 1.2295/1.2266 and the 100-period simple moving average. Momentum slowed, however, once the pair linked with demand (prior supply) at 1.2220/1.2199, consequently tempting buyers back into the market.
1.2295/1.2266 stands as possible supply today, though it is also worth taking into account we could see a whipsaw form to 1.23 here.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price holds 1.1904/1.2235, despite positioned against the major trend.
Sellers on the daily timeframe still have a hand in the fight around the double-top resistance neckline at 1.2247.
H4 price formed a bottom a few pips shy of demand at 1.2170/1.2204 and trendline support.
H1 price lurks under supply at 1.2295/1.2266 after rebounding from demand at 1.2220/1.2199.
In a nutshell, monthly and H4 price suggest buyers may govern movement, while daily and H1 price indicate we could be navigating lower levels today.