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GBPJPY - SHORT; Looking for a Top here

업데이트됨

The Pound found itself rather unimpressed on the heels of the recent inflation data prints. Speculation abound whether there is one more rate hike left in the BoE, before long? (Likely.) Even so, everything (including the kitchen sink) has already been factored into the Pound crosses thus, any short fall in inflation prints from here on out are likely to have severe (down side) consequences! This pair has been quite overextended, already, above 170.00.
The EUR/GBP is showing signs of an intermediate bottom, following its recent drop. (Thus, if anything this is the pair to look for Shorts, vs. the EURJPY.)
Overall, both pairs EUR/JPY and this one, GBP/JPY are somewhere very close to a (very!) long term top, e.g., both pairs are deserving some unmitigated attention at this point.
Looking for Short Entries here

Here is the Daily view;

... and here is the EURGBP;

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Clearly that 175.00 area ...

... is now an ideal target to start looking for a reversal.

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It is too early to tell whether any of the shorts here will hold ...

... nevertheless, loaded up the maximum Short, off of the 174.25 Stop Hunt.
(Now, sitting on even-money stops.)
This pair is simply way over-extended to pose any danger on the long side.

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This pair continues to struggle up here ...

... being overly extended above 170.00.
If you haven't gotten SHORT, yet, this is a second chance!
(It is quite possible that a long term H & S is forming here.)
For the moment, this continues to be a superior short vs. the EUR/JPY.

액티브 트레이드

Loaded up ...

SHORT off of that Stop Hunt.
This is working on a major reversal here.

액티브 트레이드

SHORT

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A birdseye view;

Each leg of that 3-Drive has been uncannily accurate on the monthly bases.

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Although this is a different pair but they are somewhat related as far as GBP vs Safe Havens go; (... and don't feel like starting a separate thread just for this ;-)

This has been wicking here, something wicked, for quite some time now!
SHORT

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SHORT

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Nice, clean break in here, as well;

SHORT

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Move Stops along the red parabola - which means, you should be locking in profits at this point.

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

We're on (intermediate) target here;

FLAT, for now. +105 pips (or, just continue to ride along that red parabola.)

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Cruisin' ...Just stay Short!

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The likely path forward here could be something like this;

It is a lot of back-and-forth here as it is trying to cling to the bottom of that long-term upward sloping channel, that took it all the way up here.

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Note;
Going into next month (July) expiration, 30-days out there are significant increases (almost double) in FX Yen Calls, matched with similar gains in the end-of-July Sterling 125.00 Puts, while spot cash flows point to continued Euro weakness (inline with the potential 106 target, I have pointed to, earlier).
FX options action continue to point to much increased “fears” of a (“surprise” - Really?!) BoJ tightening - as I keep advocating it being a very real possibility!! - while Euro weakness is now being accepted as a foregone conclusion.
E.g. the Yen continues to hold the potential to shock markets (in the event of which the EURJPY will bear the brunt of it!), while there is still some “disbelief” for a sub-125.00 Sterling but (“just in case”? ;-) there is continued, brisk 125 Put buying, now outstripping the short flows in the EURUSD.
E.g., If you’ve been following any of these posts then by now you should be comfortably positioned in all the right places and with room to spare! I.e.; Short all USD base pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc - and the EURJPY; (very) LONG USDCHF and company.
Most importantly, those “Yen fears” remain just that until something actually happens - normally.
HOWEVER, considering the nature of a 30-year, $3 Trillion short position, and the necessity in such an event for global markets to cover it!…That just simply is Not something that one is very likely to get a chance to waltz in, in the middle of it, to take advantage of the moves that will prompt. E.g. Be strongly advised!!

p.s. Without any intent of beleaguering it, this is just to illustrate the above point - this was in the EURJPY;
That was the single largest Yen move (700 pips), prompted by just the hint of the BoJ "may do something" - at some future date. I.e., There, nothing has really happened, yet.

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While it is recommended to trade a rate differential weighted "currency basket" vs. the Yen;

Nevertheless ...

... this is an aggressive SHORT here.

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This has been struggling near this long-term Sell Zone for quite a while now;

Thursday night (or Friday morning, dependent where you're located) we've loaded up Long on this pair because of that bullish Deep Crab on the 120 min.
To our pleasant surprise, after that Reuters take on continued stagnant BoJ's rate policy, we have cleared +200 pips in net profits, in no time at all. Thank you very much!. ;-) Nevertheless, this pair continues to show a strong Short Bias here.

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

(Forgot to update this one - GBPCHF Short -, last Friday)

We've finally covered our Shorts here (June 27 - Jul 7; about halfway up in this thread), for a +280 pip net profit. This was a strait, no-drama ride, all the way through.

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This one has a good R/R Short entry here;

... with a 12 pip dynamic Stop - SHORT

액티브 트레이드

Either, one is still holding Short here or got (dynamically) stopped out along the way (for +40-50 pips)?? ...

If still in it then set stops at the break-even (181.60-75?) and just let it break out in either direction (now, for $0 risk). - It is all coiled up here so, move it will (rather soon).

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

Boom!!

FLAT for +430 pips.
We've missed our target time frame by a miniscule 16 hours!
But hey, there are no extra points for perfect timing, right?! - So, we're just as happy to take our +430 pips profit.