GBPAUD Short/Long Setup & Analysis

2020년 8월 11일

We have an interesting opportunity from the GBP/AUD pair. According to the COT GBP reports from the past few weeks, we can notice that the short-term dominance of the long contract is starting to reverse the overall positions. This can lead to a move for the 0.382 Fibonacci area near the 1.88000 mark.

On the weekly timeframe we can see that price broke below the critical demand level near 1.88000 but couldn’t break the one at 1.77000. After that buy pressure came in and now the pair may face an upward momentum towards the upper weekly supply level.
On the daily timeframe we can notice that the Fibonacci levels have been respected multiple times and they will be respected until we have new lower highs near the upper trendline.

There are 2 possible scenarios for the GBPAUD pair:
1. Price getting rejected by the 0.236 Fibonacci level at 1.84000 and then heading towards the bottom trendline near 1.74000. This is the scenario which is less likely to happen.
2. Price getting rejected by the weekly supply level and the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 1.88000 and then heading towards the 1.74000 mark.

Strong rejections from the levels mentioned above will be clear indicators for one of the scenarios to happen.

Happy Trading!