GBPAUD Daily view, STRATEGIC retrace into LONG setup
Big picture first:
As you can see, we have a big void to the left which hasn't been filled yet, and the point where it would get filled conveniently falls exactly on .705 retrace from top to bottom. On the macro scale, I think it would have to get to that point before it continues its major downtrend.
The red levels are weekly horizontal levels that I think are important and reactive.
Now, looking at the daily time frame, we poked above the top red level and came back. If you look back at the weekly chart, you'll notice that there were several cases where we first poked one of the levels, came back deeply, and then finally broke out for real. This may be one of those cases.
What I'm seeing as a really probable setup right now is a long from the daily .705 retrace level. Not only that, but we also have a daily breaker, another red(weekly) horizontal level and a small void that hasn't yet been filled. That's 4 factors of confluence that I can't ignore for a setup.
Let's see how it unfolds.
Some terms I used:
-Bullish breaker - an orderblock (a green or red candle, in this case green) that preceeded a move that took out a previous swing low, but was later nuked through. If the price comes back to that block, it is expected to act as support.
-Void - a fast move in the market in one direction, usually in just a few candles and without any proper retracements during the move. Most of the time after the move is done the price will eventually come back to "fill the void". Also called an "inefficient move".
As you can see, we have a big void to the left which hasn't been filled yet, and the point where it would get filled conveniently falls exactly on .705 retrace from top to bottom. On the macro scale, I think it would have to get to that point before it continues its major downtrend.
The red levels are weekly horizontal levels that I think are important and reactive.
Now, looking at the daily time frame, we poked above the top red level and came back. If you look back at the weekly chart, you'll notice that there were several cases where we first poked one of the levels, came back deeply, and then finally broke out for real. This may be one of those cases.
What I'm seeing as a really probable setup right now is a long from the daily .705 retrace level. Not only that, but we also have a daily breaker, another red(weekly) horizontal level and a small void that hasn't yet been filled. That's 4 factors of confluence that I can't ignore for a setup.
Let's see how it unfolds.
Some terms I used:
-Bullish breaker - an orderblock (a green or red candle, in this case green) that preceeded a move that took out a previous swing low, but was later nuked through. If the price comes back to that block, it is expected to act as support.
-Void - a fast move in the market in one direction, usually in just a few candles and without any proper retracements during the move. Most of the time after the move is done the price will eventually come back to "fill the void". Also called an "inefficient move".