Looks like the bet on margins for natural gas related activities are on the blink as gas futures have reset to below pre-pandemic levels.
Having one of my best trades of the past two years (without options) in the books, I'm taking profit and going on the options train.
Looking for a strategy that places the max loss above 38. and break even at around 27. I assume that this may take 12 months to play out because:
I'm also placing a 6-to-9-month buffer to allow the Wyckoff distribution pattern to play out. The options strategy I'll pick will put this info into consideration in addition to the risk that the price remains elevated.
I'll update the strategy below as soon as I work out the numbers, (premiums, decay rates, target profits, expiry dates etc). This is just the first step to identifying a potential trade options idea so bear with me. If you have recommendations for strategies, comment below. If possible, please highlight the numbers.
Looking for a strategy that places the max loss above 38. and break even at around 27. I assume that this may take 12 months to play out because:
- Europe may have proven to the world that they can handle the new gas flows away from Russia.
- This means that pressures on emerging markets to buy gas at lower prices are going to ease considerably in the next 12 months.
I'm also placing a 6-to-9-month buffer to allow the Wyckoff distribution pattern to play out. The options strategy I'll pick will put this info into consideration in addition to the risk that the price remains elevated.
I'll update the strategy below as soon as I work out the numbers, (premiums, decay rates, target profits, expiry dates etc). This is just the first step to identifying a potential trade options idea so bear with me. If you have recommendations for strategies, comment below. If possible, please highlight the numbers.
