Forecast

2022년 1월 30일

Bias: Positive

Sentiment: Optimistic

Emoji (emotion): Strong 🏋️‍♂️

Null Hypothesis: Buy

Alternative Hypothesis: Sell

Signals: Late stochastic buy

Position: Day/swing trade

Notes: Anticipating an earnings surprise.

Other:

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About the Security:

2022년 2월 2일

코멘트

"The alternative hypothesis was accepted, journal entry concluded."

2022년 2월 3일

코멘트

(Reflection) I counted the alternative hypothesis even though the trade stayed within my tolerable range until the target was reached because the price opened below 3 standard deviations following the earnings disappointment last evening (an anomaly in its own right).

2022년 2월 3일

코멘트

(Reference) "The empirical rule, also referred to as the three-sigma rule or 68-95-99.7 rule, is a statistical rule which states that for a normal distribution, almost all observed data will fall within three standard deviations of the mean or average. In particular, the empirical rule predicts that 68% of observations falls within the first standard deviation, 95% within the first two standard deviations, and 99.7% within the first three standard deviations."

2022년 2월 3일

코멘트

(Analysis) Today's open at $244.65 was a .3% chance or less.