US Fed has kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50% as expected. The pair hits high of 1.12544 after the policy and is currently trading around 1.12307. The major things to be watched in this meeting are
Projections: The projections of inflation for the year 2019 was lowered to 1.5% from 1.8% and for 2020 to 1.9% from 2.0%.
Forward Guidance- Over the past few months, the Fed had stated that "the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes". In June meeting the Fed has removed the word "patience" form an updated policy statement and this increases hopes of a rate cut in 2019. The central bank has clearly stated that it will take appropriate action to sustain expansion.
Dot plot - The 30- day Fed funds futures shows that there is 83% probability of rate cut in Jul and 87% chance of Fed to lower rates twice this year. The dot plot clearly shows that nearly half of the members of the Fed committee expect to cut rates once or twice by this year 2019 (8 member call for one rate cut this year).
Technically, EURUSD's major resistance is around 1.1265-70 (100- day MA) and any violation above targets 1.1300/1.13479-.355 (Jun 7th, 2019 and 200- day MA). Any close above 1.1355 confirms bullish continuation and a jump till 1.14450 is possible.
On the flip side, near term support is around 1.11750 and any convincing break below will drag the pair to the next level till 1.11400/1.11000.
It is good to buy on dips around 1.1230-35 with SL around 1.11750 for the TP of 1.13450.
코멘트:
EURUSD breaks major resistance at 1.12650 100 day MA and jump till 1.1345 possible
코멘트:
As per our analysis EURUSD flying and any break above 1.13480-50 confirms bullish continuation
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