EURUSD IDEA 12-11-2023

2023년 11월 12일

We traded into a monthly imbalance without fully closing it up top. the red lines indicate monthly weekly daily liquidity at the bottom and daily/weekly liquidity at the top. i dont expect pwh to be taken out this week, i expect price to go down and take out at least fridays 3 november low to then bounce back up from 1.06250 area or 1.05500 area.

On the 4h chart we can see impulsive move up from the 6600 area but once we got up to 7000 zone we had a big bearish rejection followed by a big impulsive move down which to me indicates the possibility to move further down. after the impulsive move down we started to have slow price action moving back up indicating a retracement, not a lot of strength, not a lot of willingness to go up, bringing price back to a balanced level to end the day and the week.

My expectation for monday is for price to return to the supply in the 7250 area that caused the ltf last break of structure down and then continue a short term bearish movement till we get to 6250 or 5500 area.

One other scenario i could expect to happen is to go up to take pwh, fully close the montly imbalance at the 8000 area, where there is also a h4 supply from 4 September, and then move down to fulfil the scenario I described above.

So for next week i will be waiting for price to get to this zones, see how it gets there, and wait for a confirmation to enter the trades.
I will be looking for sells from the 8000 zone and 7250, and I'll be looking for buys from 6250 zone and 5500.