EUR/USD:Pullback Support Area For a New LONG Setup

The ECB's leadership in the "tightening race" allows us to expect a continued EUR/USD rally within the upward channel in the near future. The minimum target is the March high of 1.091, followed by a retest to the area of 1.10, where there was strong resistance to the sharp improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop in the United States at the beginning of February:

Risks to the Core PCE for March, the Fed's key measure of inflation, have shifted downward; risky assets have responded with additional gains, while the dollar has reached new lows. A weak Core PCE will make it much easier for EUR/USD buyers to increase their position.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March was 104.2 points higher than expected (forecast 101 points). The monthly change in US real estate prices was 0.2%, with the Case-Shiller price index increasing 2.5% year on year. Overall, the data point to a modest increase in optimism in the US stock market in the near term.