According to the forecast it came today to test resistance located at 1.1250 and 1.1289. Today supported the demand side of the weaker data from the US had no major problems beating 1.1289 and set a new high of 1.1371. It is worth recalling that the ADP reading was much worse than forecast. The market read this as a sign ahead of Friday's weak US data and the ability to maintain low interest rates by the Fed, in the long term. For the record it is worth noting that the market is counting on raising interest rates in late autumn. It is also important to Greece, which is negotiating with the EU on the next financial aid. Recently there have information on certain concessions Greeks, which would introduce further needed reforms. Of course, all this weakens the dollar but keep in mind that in the first half of May, Greece must repay more than 900 million euros.
Economic Calendar
Thursday:
8:00 EUR Order factories in Germany
14:30 USD ascendant declared unemployed
Forecast for Thursday:
The currency pair reached important resistance, which should temporarily stop the increases. Whereas pure technical analysis, after such a strong rally should of course be a correction, which should bear part of the inheritance. Tomorrow, we do not have too much data, so there is a chance for a variant of correction and re-attack. The supply should result in the currency pair around 1.1289 level, which currently provides strong support then we should see another attack on today's maximum of 1.1371. In the case of his defeat within the resistance zone should be at 1,1430-48. If demand can not cope with new peaks, supply and will take the initiative to take profits from long positions. Supply overcome support at 1.1289 and then should reach the support at 1,1225-50.
Note: Please note that on Friday we will know the data on unemployment in the US. Quite likely that the market will try to set up the information that will be announced on Friday.
Keep in mind that if Friday's data will prove to be much better than the forecast, then EUR / USD will develop a very strong wave down and the dollar will strengthen in the medium term.
In the case of weaker data they have given themselves a chance for a rate hike. This should lead to further increases in the vicinity of 1.16-1.18.
Economic Calendar
Thursday:
8:00 EUR Order factories in Germany
14:30 USD ascendant declared unemployed
Forecast for Thursday:
The currency pair reached important resistance, which should temporarily stop the increases. Whereas pure technical analysis, after such a strong rally should of course be a correction, which should bear part of the inheritance. Tomorrow, we do not have too much data, so there is a chance for a variant of correction and re-attack. The supply should result in the currency pair around 1.1289 level, which currently provides strong support then we should see another attack on today's maximum of 1.1371. In the case of his defeat within the resistance zone should be at 1,1430-48. If demand can not cope with new peaks, supply and will take the initiative to take profits from long positions. Supply overcome support at 1.1289 and then should reach the support at 1,1225-50.
Note: Please note that on Friday we will know the data on unemployment in the US. Quite likely that the market will try to set up the information that will be announced on Friday.
Keep in mind that if Friday's data will prove to be much better than the forecast, then EUR / USD will develop a very strong wave down and the dollar will strengthen in the medium term.
In the case of weaker data they have given themselves a chance for a rate hike. This should lead to further increases in the vicinity of 1.16-1.18.