Although both Europe and the US are experiencing high inflation, the US has already taken the lead in raising interest rates several times and by a large margin, causing capital to flow back and the dollar to appreciate; while the Eurozone is forced to raise interest rates. If they don’t raise rates, as we can see now, capital in the Eurozone is accelerating its outflow and the euro is depreciating. But if they are forced to raise interest rates, their already sluggish economic growth will be curbed to some extent and it will increase the debt risk of some member countries in the Eurozone, bringing more hidden dangers.
In addition to the Fed’s rate hikes, Europe’s own economic situation is not optimistic. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, many European countries have followed in step with the United States. On one hand they continue to fan flames and repeatedly send weapons to Ukraine causing conflicts not being resolved; on other hand they impose multi-dimensional sanctions on Russia which directly leads Europe itself facing energy shortages or even supply cuts. From November 11th onwards Russia temporarily shut down Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline for routine maintenance. There are widespread concerns in Europe that this pipeline’s “maintenance period” will be extended or even completely shut down which will continue to push up energy prices in Europe and plunge its economy into recession again. This concern also causes a large amount of capital to flee from Europe lowering euro exchange rate.
Looking at EURUSD daily chart: EURUSD plummeted to key support level near 1.0535 then showed stop-loss rebound trend indicating that support below remains strong. In short term USD trend is under pressure EURUSD may see a good uptrend we still remain optimistic about future rise.
Personal trading strategy: Go long near 1.0600 first target at 1.07500 second target at 1.09350
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