EUR/USD POSSIBLE SHORT ON WEEKLY

2023년 12월 8일

Hey guys,

Very interesting situation with EUR/USD.

Fundamentally, I would say situation is more neutral to negative, most of the possible rate cuts are priced in already for USD, and there is current pressure on EUR, since they have already significantly declining inflation (more than expected). I don't see any possible significant negative events for USD, moreover, I see more chances for flight to safety because of the Evergande situation that will be due to resolve in the end of January and right after next possible US Government shutdown talks.

Technically, obvious downward channel with touch(rejection) of 200 EMA.

Crowd is already longing the pair mostly, so that's supporting the downward pressure.

The only one thing that is not supporting short is COT data, massive closure of short positions for the last 3 weeks and some long positions opened.

I am shorting it from the top of the movement, and adding some positions along the way down.

Good luck!

2023년 12월 13일

노트

I have closed multiple positions and opened some again. Planning to open more higher if we see the reaction on FOMC is limited (we would not go out of channel) and I would assume that Europe will capitulate even sooner (they have a meeting this Thursday), so it probably will balance out the pair.
My view that we are going to burn out soon and have a good retracement, remember markets are already priced in these cuts...

2023년 12월 14일

액티브 트레이드

Opened more short positions. Will see how it goes. Final target for now is 1.072.

2023년 12월 29일

노트

Added more shorts:
- Looks like new HL was formed.
- Finally COT data started to shift towards bearish EUR.
- Recent data is showing a serious struggle for EU and US economies, that potentially beneficial for USD.
- ATH of almost every index, possibility of potential pull back positive for USD.
- Going into new potential fight for US funding in Jan and Evergrande in the end of Jan.
- Gold is ATH, clear sign for future flight to safety. Broken correlation btw, since XAU was not preferred asset when markets are bullish.

On the opposite side:
- Market greed to price in even more rate cuts (for FED) that could be bullish for EUR.
- Possibility of further bullish stance of EU Central bank.

I see this pair going down at least to 1.08-1.072 if we break down 1.068 is 0.5 Fib.
Good luck.

2월 2일

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