EURUSD NextWeek : It’s a relatively busy week for the EUR/USD, with the German economy, inflation, and ECB member chatter in focus.
On Monday, German Ifo Business Climate Index will move the dial ahead of German GfK consumer climate numbers on Tuesday.
The German economic recession and concerns over the global macroeconomic environment could see the Business Climate Index and sub-components take a tumble. However, tight labor market conditions should limit the downside of the Consumer Climate Index.
On Thursday and Friday, the German economy remains in the spotlight. Prelim inflation numbers for June and retail sales figures for May will be in focus on Thursday ahead of unemployment figures on Friday. We expect inflation to be the key driver, with prelim euro area inflation figures also significant on Friday.
While the ECB looks set to hike rates in July, there is uncertainty about the September monetary policy decision. Support for a September hike would deliver EUR/USD support.
The ECB will also release the monthly Economic Bulletin on Thursday, with the outlook on inflation, the economy, and interest rates likely focal points.
Analysis: Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs sent bullish signals. The EUR/USD sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1.08985. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.
A move through the 50-day EMA ($1.08985) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.0988) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($1.1084) and $1.1100.
However, a fall through the 100-day ($1.08591) and 200-day ($1.08446) EMAs would bring S1 ($1.0820) and sub-$1.08 Major Support Levels into play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. Sticky core euro area inflation and hawkish ECB commentary would support bullish trends.
On Monday, German Ifo Business Climate Index will move the dial ahead of German GfK consumer climate numbers on Tuesday.
The German economic recession and concerns over the global macroeconomic environment could see the Business Climate Index and sub-components take a tumble. However, tight labor market conditions should limit the downside of the Consumer Climate Index.
On Thursday and Friday, the German economy remains in the spotlight. Prelim inflation numbers for June and retail sales figures for May will be in focus on Thursday ahead of unemployment figures on Friday. We expect inflation to be the key driver, with prelim euro area inflation figures also significant on Friday.
While the ECB looks set to hike rates in July, there is uncertainty about the September monetary policy decision. Support for a September hike would deliver EUR/USD support.
The ECB will also release the monthly Economic Bulletin on Thursday, with the outlook on inflation, the economy, and interest rates likely focal points.
Analysis: Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs sent bullish signals. The EUR/USD sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1.08985. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.
A move through the 50-day EMA ($1.08985) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.0988) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($1.1084) and $1.1100.
However, a fall through the 100-day ($1.08591) and 200-day ($1.08446) EMAs would bring S1 ($1.0820) and sub-$1.08 Major Support Levels into play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. Sticky core euro area inflation and hawkish ECB commentary would support bullish trends.
