Tuesday June 27 2023
>ECB President Lagarde spoke at the central bank’s policy forum earlier and reiterated a hawkish perspective for rates, noting that – barring any major changes – the bank will tighten rates again in July and that it was unlikely that policymakers would be able ‘to state with full confidence that peak rates have been reached’ anytime soon. The door is clearly being left purposefully open to the rate cycle extending beyond July.
>Any change in the hawkish ECB policy outlook drumbeat after the weak, preliminary PMI data from the Eurozone last week will hurt the EUR. I don’t expect any change at this point and there is little sign of concern in markets where 22 bps of tightening in July are still being priced in.
Gains are limited and the short-term pattern of trade retains a soft undertone that makes it hard to rule out more weakness absent more solid EUR gains (above 1.0950 at least).
>Dumb money Retail is 68% Short on the Euro
>Cot Looks Bullish
>Trend is Bullish
>Inflation Rate in Italy upcoming to slow down
>ECB Lagarde speech forecast Hawkish
>Fed Lowering Rates
>ECB President Lagarde spoke at the central bank’s policy forum earlier and reiterated a hawkish perspective for rates, noting that – barring any major changes – the bank will tighten rates again in July and that it was unlikely that policymakers would be able ‘to state with full confidence that peak rates have been reached’ anytime soon. The door is clearly being left purposefully open to the rate cycle extending beyond July.
>Any change in the hawkish ECB policy outlook drumbeat after the weak, preliminary PMI data from the Eurozone last week will hurt the EUR. I don’t expect any change at this point and there is little sign of concern in markets where 22 bps of tightening in July are still being priced in.
Gains are limited and the short-term pattern of trade retains a soft undertone that makes it hard to rule out more weakness absent more solid EUR gains (above 1.0950 at least).
>Dumb money Retail is 68% Short on the Euro
>Cot Looks Bullish
>Trend is Bullish
>Inflation Rate in Italy upcoming to slow down
>ECB Lagarde speech forecast Hawkish
>Fed Lowering Rates
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Euro Could Rise if Inflation Data Support ECB's Stance -- Market Talk