I believe the dollar will continue to fall, but will not fulfill the final fib extension trend at 1.43 and simply make a double top at 1.4. This rally in the Euro is in the short term due to speculation based on increasing US debt and geopolitical uncertainty created by Trump- perhaps even a cross continental superficial bias towards the latter.
I believe in the long term, Europe will have increasing problems competing with US innovations, while being hindered by a large non historically homogenous population of immigrants into a lofty welfare state. US debt will also become riskier in the next few years as our debt explodes, thus making USD denominated debt more expensive and thus attractive to foreign buyers.
Demand for US shale and other commodities will also alleviate the top end in favor of the dollar.
I believe in the long term, Europe will have increasing problems competing with US innovations, while being hindered by a large non historically homogenous population of immigrants into a lofty welfare state. US debt will also become riskier in the next few years as our debt explodes, thus making USD denominated debt more expensive and thus attractive to foreign buyers.
Demand for US shale and other commodities will also alleviate the top end in favor of the dollar.