Short on lower trend line break

2016년 5월 29일

EURUSD has crossed its 50 day EMA, then tested and broken the 200 day EMA as well. I'm watching closely the imminent testing of the lower ascending channel trend line at ~1.108. A break below such level could trigger a more significant descend towards the long term lower horizontal channel trendline at ~1.050.
The recent downtrend has been motivated by the significant increase in probability of an upcoming FED rate hike in either June or July. As long as this forecast keeps being valid the EUR should continue to loose ground to the USD.
However, the fact that the FED's decision is so close in time could put a halt to this development due to the natural uncertainty leading up to the mid June meeting. The upcoming 6th of June speech by Mme Yellen will certainly provide some degree of insight on this possible move's chances.
A rate hike in June could potentially even break the low 1.05 trendline