The Scenario for New EUR/USD 2024 Highs?

Market sentiment is leaning towards three more rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, while economists are more cautious, expecting just two. Should the economists be correct, 2023’s high for the EUR/USD pair could be back in play.

The market's confidence in ECB rate cuts outpaces that in the Federal Reserve. The Fed, facing closer scrutiny, is walking a tighter rope; its first rate cut in years will likely be the most important event of the year (possibly bigger than the US election), as it marks the beginning of a new monetary-policy phase.

Adding to the intrigue is a recent uptick in Eurozone inflation, which suggests that progress on this front may have stalled. In contrast, many believe that U.S. inflation is either under control or nearing that point.

This week's Jackson Hole symposium, scheduled for August 22-24, could provide further insights, particularly from European policymakers. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is already confirmed as a speaker, but the full agenda of talks is released closer to the opening day.