EURUSD: deciding the side
Retail Sales in May were standing at 0.1% higher from the previous month, however, a bit lower from market anticipated 0.2%. Building Permits preliminary for May were 1.386M, lower by 3.8% on a monthly basis, and below market estimate of 1.45M.
Core inflation rate in the EuroZone, final for May, was standing at 2.9%, unchanged from previous estimate. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for June for the Euro Zone was 53.3, a bit higher from market estimate of 47.8. The same indicator for Germany was standing lower from the market forecast of 50, reaching 47.5. The Producers Price Index in Germany in May was standing at 0% on a monthly basis, below market estimate of 0.3%. HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for June was 43.4, modestly lower from forecasted 46.4.
Previous week the currency pair spent clearly testing the 1.067 longer term support line. Short reversals during the week were up to the level of 1.076, while the eurusd is ending the week at level of 1.0691. The RSI still has not reached a clear oversold market side, as it ended the week at the level of 39. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days continue to move as two parallel lines, without any indication of potential for convergence or divergence in the coming period.
As per current charts, the currency pair will spend one more week in an attempt to break the 1.067 support to the downside. Period of next one or two weeks will show the path of the currency pair in the future period. Namely, if demand for the US Dollar remains strong, it could be expected that 1.067 will be broken and the currency pair will continue to test lower grounds in the future, where 1.060 will be the next level to watch. However, if 1.067 is the end of the current cycle, then it could be expected a modest return to the higher grounds, above 1.07 level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Ifo Business Climate for Germany in June, Germany GfK Consumer Confidence for June, Unemployment rate in June for Germany
USD: CB Consumer Confidence in June, Durable Goods Orders for May, GDP Growth Rate final for Q1, PCE Price Index for May, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for June.
Core inflation rate in the EuroZone, final for May, was standing at 2.9%, unchanged from previous estimate. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for June for the Euro Zone was 53.3, a bit higher from market estimate of 47.8. The same indicator for Germany was standing lower from the market forecast of 50, reaching 47.5. The Producers Price Index in Germany in May was standing at 0% on a monthly basis, below market estimate of 0.3%. HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for June was 43.4, modestly lower from forecasted 46.4.
Previous week the currency pair spent clearly testing the 1.067 longer term support line. Short reversals during the week were up to the level of 1.076, while the eurusd is ending the week at level of 1.0691. The RSI still has not reached a clear oversold market side, as it ended the week at the level of 39. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days continue to move as two parallel lines, without any indication of potential for convergence or divergence in the coming period.
As per current charts, the currency pair will spend one more week in an attempt to break the 1.067 support to the downside. Period of next one or two weeks will show the path of the currency pair in the future period. Namely, if demand for the US Dollar remains strong, it could be expected that 1.067 will be broken and the currency pair will continue to test lower grounds in the future, where 1.060 will be the next level to watch. However, if 1.067 is the end of the current cycle, then it could be expected a modest return to the higher grounds, above 1.07 level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Ifo Business Climate for Germany in June, Germany GfK Consumer Confidence for June, Unemployment rate in June for Germany
USD: CB Consumer Confidence in June, Durable Goods Orders for May, GDP Growth Rate final for Q1, PCE Price Index for May, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for June.
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