EUR/USD consolidating range
The interplay between Trump's economic policies, ECB decisions and market responses remains a crucial driver of volatility in EUR/USD.
At today's European open, EUR/USD is showing slight stability around 1.04775 as the market assesses various relevant economic data for the Eurozone and the US. With immediate support at 1.04506 and resistance at 1.04961, the pair is in a consolidation range. Investors will be watching the Eurozone macroeconomic data and any relevant statement from the Federal Reserve to define the direction of the pair. The market is currently experiencing a fairly clear indecision. Currently the 50,100 and 200 averages are at a crossover point which could mean that the Euro may be showing signs of sideways consolidation. The RSI is at 54.34, the current delta zones are clearly defined in the indicated areas of support and resistance. And what we have been able to perceive is a slight increase in trading volume. We will have to see how the market reflects today's news to see if this position holds up.
Donald Trump's fiscal promises focus on:
1. Extension of the 2017 tax cuts: Maintain the tax cuts implemented during his first term, favoring mainly businesses and high-income earners.
2. Additional corporate tax cuts: further lowering corporate tax rates to stimulate investment and economic growth.
3. Public spending cuts: Implement drastic cuts in government spending, including a significant reduction of federal employees, estimated between 25% and 50%.
4. Budget deficit: Despite the cuts, some analysts warn that these policies could expand the fiscal deficit rather than reduce it, depending on their scope and implementation.
These measures generate mixed expectations in the markets, ranging from economic stimulus to risks of higher inflation and social tensions.
Today's news affecting the EUR/USD
1. Eurozone Consumer Confidence (November)
• Expected reading: 73
• Previous figure: 74.1
A drop in confidence could weaken the euro, as it reflects lower optimism in the European economy, affecting consumption and investment. This indicator will be key to observe whether inflationary pressure and high interest rates are eroding consumer sentiment.
2. Eurozone Unemployment Rate (October)
• Expected figure: 7.7%.
• Previous figure: 8.1%.
If unemployment falls more than expected, it could support the euro by indicating improvements in the labor market, which strengthens consumers' spending power. However, a worse-than-expected figure could pressure the EUR/USD lower.
3. Bond auctions (BTP and Bobl)
The rates obtained in the Italian and German debt auctions will have an impact on the yield spread between Europe and the US. If rates in Europe rise faster than in the US, the euro could find support against the dollar.
4. ECB's McCaul speech
Comments related to monetary policy could affect EUR/USD. Signs of tighter policy to combat inflation could strengthen the euro.
5. U.S. housing and confidence data
• Consumer Confidence (CB, November): A weaker-than-expected figure (108.7 vs. 111.6 estimate) could pressure the dollar, which would boost EUR/USD.
• FOMC Minutes: This high-impact event could set the market tone for the USD. Expectations of higher US rates would strengthen the USD, weakening the EUR/USD.
Interested in reading about a particular currency cross? Write here.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst Activtrades
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
At today's European open, EUR/USD is showing slight stability around 1.04775 as the market assesses various relevant economic data for the Eurozone and the US. With immediate support at 1.04506 and resistance at 1.04961, the pair is in a consolidation range. Investors will be watching the Eurozone macroeconomic data and any relevant statement from the Federal Reserve to define the direction of the pair. The market is currently experiencing a fairly clear indecision. Currently the 50,100 and 200 averages are at a crossover point which could mean that the Euro may be showing signs of sideways consolidation. The RSI is at 54.34, the current delta zones are clearly defined in the indicated areas of support and resistance. And what we have been able to perceive is a slight increase in trading volume. We will have to see how the market reflects today's news to see if this position holds up.
Donald Trump's fiscal promises focus on:
1. Extension of the 2017 tax cuts: Maintain the tax cuts implemented during his first term, favoring mainly businesses and high-income earners.
2. Additional corporate tax cuts: further lowering corporate tax rates to stimulate investment and economic growth.
3. Public spending cuts: Implement drastic cuts in government spending, including a significant reduction of federal employees, estimated between 25% and 50%.
4. Budget deficit: Despite the cuts, some analysts warn that these policies could expand the fiscal deficit rather than reduce it, depending on their scope and implementation.
These measures generate mixed expectations in the markets, ranging from economic stimulus to risks of higher inflation and social tensions.
Today's news affecting the EUR/USD
1. Eurozone Consumer Confidence (November)
• Expected reading: 73
• Previous figure: 74.1
A drop in confidence could weaken the euro, as it reflects lower optimism in the European economy, affecting consumption and investment. This indicator will be key to observe whether inflationary pressure and high interest rates are eroding consumer sentiment.
2. Eurozone Unemployment Rate (October)
• Expected figure: 7.7%.
• Previous figure: 8.1%.
If unemployment falls more than expected, it could support the euro by indicating improvements in the labor market, which strengthens consumers' spending power. However, a worse-than-expected figure could pressure the EUR/USD lower.
3. Bond auctions (BTP and Bobl)
The rates obtained in the Italian and German debt auctions will have an impact on the yield spread between Europe and the US. If rates in Europe rise faster than in the US, the euro could find support against the dollar.
4. ECB's McCaul speech
Comments related to monetary policy could affect EUR/USD. Signs of tighter policy to combat inflation could strengthen the euro.
5. U.S. housing and confidence data
• Consumer Confidence (CB, November): A weaker-than-expected figure (108.7 vs. 111.6 estimate) could pressure the dollar, which would boost EUR/USD.
• FOMC Minutes: This high-impact event could set the market tone for the USD. Expectations of higher US rates would strengthen the USD, weakening the EUR/USD.
Interested in reading about a particular currency cross? Write here.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst Activtrades
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.