EURJPY; Trade what you see, not what you think!

업데이트됨

(It is time to start a fresh EURJPY post - once again -, the previous one(s) having grown too long to remain practical.)

The Weekly - With special attention to the two, most recent Hammers;

The Daily - With it's completed H&S, including the neckline break;

(All the visible patterns were also updated on these charts due to some earlier inaccuracies - misalignment - which snuck onto the previous versions of these charts - mostly on the higher time frames.)

Actively looking for a SHORT Entry here! (if not Short, yet.)

액티브 트레이드

An other good SHORT Entry - if not Short, yet.

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This thing;

... is now sitting in the middle of everything, exactly!
E.g., wait for it to show something before loading up SHORT! (It could spend the next few days just perched where it's now!)

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The definition of: "Going nowhere"

Since August 23 (31 days)
this - EURJPY - has crossed the 157.825 axis 25 times!!
= 5/6th (83.33%) of the time
E.g., This pair crossed the same axis every 29 hours!
And the Frequency of crossings is (still) increasing at the rate of 2^1/2 (power law? ;-)
Is trading getting ready to be halted?? ... ;-)

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This is just the Weekly perspective of the above, most unusual "market stasis".

Incidentally, one would also be willing to wager that, by now, mounting losses among Retail Traders are reaching rather remarkable levels! ;-) Right or wrong?? ...

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Note
One observation should be made explicit in conjunction with the above identified "market stasis" in the EURJPY;
Namely, that when a market is sitting at or near historic extremes, such as is the case here, and volatility ("directionality") collapses, forcing an unusually narrow trading range, the self evident conclusion is that this is most likely a distribution phase in that market, foreshadowing a turn (change in direction/trend) in the not too distant future.

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An additional Note;
This market stasis in the EURJPY is "by design" and it's due to the massive barrier and knock-in/out option positions in both, in the EURUSD and USDJPY, where everyone knows which way these pairs are going yet, the bears are dead-set on a gradual, grinding decline vs. the USD.
It seems to be vogue at present to pile into highly advertised barrier option positions (mostly associated with a defensive posture), to the tune of several billion dollars at a pop and thus, holding up any directional progress in these pairs, including by the bears themselves. In short everyone is betting on "nothing to see here folks, move on!" and to elimintae any chance for a BoJ intervention, ever since the BoJ tied it's policy adjustment to the USDJPY's volatility.
1) So far, they are doing a good job killing any volatility even before it emerges;
2) We are taking the other side of a few of these FX option trades, just in case of something unexpected happening - in which case a spectacular collapse of the barriers would occur instantly!

p.s. A similar scenario can be observed in the VIX.