InvestMate|EUR/JPY BOJ DO SOMETHING💶💴

2022년 11월 16일

💶💴EUR/JPY BOJ DO SOMETHING

💶💴Another post/update of my view on the eur/jpy pair. Link to previous post below:

💶💴I will zoom in on the fundamentals:

💶Looking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past.


💴Compared to Japan where we are currently at 1.6% this is also quite average looking at past periods.
tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth-annual

💶 Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling - the latest reading on 3 November showed a drop to 6.6% compared to last reading of 6.7%.


💴 In Japan, on the other hand, unemployment rose from 2.5% to 2.6%.


💶 A week ago, on 17 November to be precise, the inflation reading, which was 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on a slowdown in inflation in the coming months.


💴 In the case of Japan, inflation is gaining momentum even though we have maintained a 3% growth the market is betting that during the next data due on 17 November we could break this barrier and rise to levels of 3.2%.


💶 Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last council meeting on 27 October to 2%.


💴 In Japan, of course, no change, the council kept rates at -0.1% at its last meeting, but with inflation gaining momentum, further moves remain uncertain. For now, the market is pricing in an unchanged rate at the next decision on 22 November.


💶💴 Now that we know the fundamental environment, let's turn to the chart.

💶💴Today brought nothing new. We attacked the 145.400 level again and there was an unsuccessful attempt to go down to yesterday's lows.

💶💴All due to low volatility on the Japanese. And uncertainty as to which way the Euro should go.

💶💴 Looking more broadly at the market and seeing that the Japanese on most pairs is preparing for a massive appreciation and the Euro on most pairs is waiting for the right moment to make a correction of uptrend.

💶💴These 2 separate events combined in a single chart could produce the massive price waterfall I wrote about in the previous post.

💶💴On the chart I determined a few things using technical analysis:

💶💴Firstly I determined the upward channel we are currently in.


💶💴Then I measured the entire downward wave using the fibo. We can see a triple attack on the 0.618 level which we failed to break out of.


💶💴Next I measured the current upward impulse to find potential support zones.


💶💴Then I measured the largest correction of this upward impulse in order to determine the 1:1 level of this correction.


💶💴By measuring the current uptrend impulse and the 1:1 correction, I found an interesting cluster of levels at 0.618 and 1:1 near 143.600


💶💴In the vicinity of the 0.618 level I determined a strong resistance zone. Due to the fact that the price repeatedly tried to break out of this level unsuccessfully


💶💴The scenario I am playing out is the eur/jpy pair descending to support levels as a result of the Bank of Japan intervening to strengthen the Japanese Yen.

💶💴*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases.

🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀

2022년 11월 17일

노트

Re-attack on the resistance zone