The concept of this complete or at least partially supported euro structure
In this swing, there are three actors:
1. the support which is acting as a pivot
2. the opposing resistance which is being targeted
3. the breakout trigger which will provide momentum
The breakout here is attacking the soft resistance at 1.14 which is +/- 4% from current levels and 1.20 next year. So buyers are standing in deep value levels with the two targets mentioned. The structure underneath is generally of royal blood, buyers put a lot of time into the plumbing of these levels and are not fearful of hiding behind one another - thus the short space between strong and soft support.
If this lacks the mobility to break out and is an absolute chop fest then we can make the executive decision to make no move of any sort. If on the other hand, the momentum kicks in as I am expecting, we can move to 1.14 with little pushback over the coming weeks and months. The diagram illustrates the long-term map.
Here the flow towards 2018 highs is underway with the European rebound and we are only "partially" into wave 3. This means we can confidently lean on the macro direction as Swiss outflows are set to continue with CHF cooked as a low yielder for the next few years. For those tracking the SNB reserve activity closely, they are going to get a lot more active in Q3 (a lot similar to Q1).
In this swing, there are three actors:
1. the support which is acting as a pivot
2. the opposing resistance which is being targeted
3. the breakout trigger which will provide momentum
The breakout here is attacking the soft resistance at 1.14 which is +/- 4% from current levels and 1.20 next year. So buyers are standing in deep value levels with the two targets mentioned. The structure underneath is generally of royal blood, buyers put a lot of time into the plumbing of these levels and are not fearful of hiding behind one another - thus the short space between strong and soft support.
If this lacks the mobility to break out and is an absolute chop fest then we can make the executive decision to make no move of any sort. If on the other hand, the momentum kicks in as I am expecting, we can move to 1.14 with little pushback over the coming weeks and months. The diagram illustrates the long-term map.
Here the flow towards 2018 highs is underway with the European rebound and we are only "partially" into wave 3. This means we can confidently lean on the macro direction as Swiss outflows are set to continue with CHF cooked as a low yielder for the next few years. For those tracking the SNB reserve activity closely, they are going to get a lot more active in Q3 (a lot similar to Q1).
