The astounding similarity of ETH bearmarket 2018 and BTC in 2014
I stumbled upon this fractal similarity which is quite amazing in its really high degree of similar behaviour.
We can see that all the areas denoted with 1-4 are matching almost exactly.
So whtat does this mean for the future behaviour?
It would mean that we'll see a slow climb in Nov/Dec, a sharp sell-off in January at point A, which could fit, because historically January has not been a good month for BTC and alts.
Then, a rally in March, and then the subsequent slow start of the next bullrun, which as we know builds up very slowly, so I assume the peak in this scenario would be in 2021.
I am still remaining neutral though, because first, BTC must break the logarithmic resistance for me to see this scenario as a very high probability scenario.
But it certainly is a probable scenario. This means that we are seeing the bottom right now, and we'll basically have a few more months of boring sideways, until the next bullrun peaks up steam
in mid to end of 2019.
We can see that all the areas denoted with 1-4 are matching almost exactly.
So whtat does this mean for the future behaviour?
It would mean that we'll see a slow climb in Nov/Dec, a sharp sell-off in January at point A, which could fit, because historically January has not been a good month for BTC and alts.
Then, a rally in March, and then the subsequent slow start of the next bullrun, which as we know builds up very slowly, so I assume the peak in this scenario would be in 2021.
I am still remaining neutral though, because first, BTC must break the logarithmic resistance for me to see this scenario as a very high probability scenario.
But it certainly is a probable scenario. This means that we are seeing the bottom right now, and we'll basically have a few more months of boring sideways, until the next bullrun peaks up steam
in mid to end of 2019.
코멘트:
I should also add that this indirectly would imply a stable phase of bitcoin. Because ETHUSD mostly follows BTCUSD, the above scenario can only work if Bitcoin acts correspondingly. Let's see if it will :)
코멘트:
If however, BTC takes the route to a low of 3k in 2019, as I have been suspecting since early this year, then of course this fractal is invalidated. Because let's be brutally realistic here: ETH is following BTC. And you can do the math how low ETHUSD will go if BTC indeed goes to 2-3k area in a few months.
ETHUSD will have a low of around 50 USD.
ETHUSD will have a low of around 50 USD.