ETH Is Driving The Market More So Than BTC

업데이트됨

I want to publish a theory I've had in hopes it will spark some debate, but primarily to serve as documentation.

In short, I claim that ETH has been driving the crypto market more so than BTC, since at least January 15.

My last published trading idea was calling the top on ETH, which turned out to be valid for the entire crypto market. The total market cap had peaked a week prior to this, but was still above the upward trend and only broke this when ETH came down.

Note that BTC made a top on December 17. Following this, alt coins had a major run, with the total crypto market roughly doubling after the BTC crash. Not something you would expect if BTC were driving the market.

This becomes clear when viewing the declining BTC dominance ratio in combination with ETH gaining 50% of BTC market cap (recently it was more than 50%).

Also of note, is the magnitude of decline in the total crypto market cap between the BTC crash (35%) and ETH crash (40%). Following the ETH crash, it outperformed the entire market.

More recently, another indicator provided further support, with the market making a rebound on the ETH 200-day moving average. When viewing BTC, it closed the daily chart on a long-term trend line, but was well below the 200-day moving average.

Furthermore, today ETH came down after touching a downward trend line, while BTC did not quite make it to the same trend line, apparently stopping in open space for no reason.

I believe next up is a re-testing of the ETH 200-day moving average. If at this time, BTC is not along this same long-term trend line, it will not make sense on a technical level.

Let me know your thoughts.

노트

On second thought, I want to increase my claim and state that ETH has been driving the crypto market more so than BTC, since at least December 17.

Take a look at this time period on the ETHUSD chart and you'll see that ETH essentially flat-lined during the BTC crash. Following that it roughly doubled in value, just like the overall crypto market cap.

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Oh and incase it's not obvious, ETHUSD is a short here.

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BTC is still not making any sense on a technical level. Never reached the trend line, and is not being impacted by the moving averages.

ETH on the other hand is.

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Time for another update. BTC once again making no sense on a technical level. Previously it had stopped short of the downtrend, then tried to break through, and was rejected. Now it has been halted in open space.

ETH on the other hand made it to the downtrend line, halted for some time (con-curing with the halt of BTC and LTC, which were beyond the downtrend) and then has come down to the 100dma before returning to the downtrend

I still believe we will see a retest of the 200dma

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Alright looks like we only got a retest of the 100dma. Now resistance off the 50dma. Looking good - putting in higher lows

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The theme continues... BTC and ETH are both free from the downtrend, but only ETH is acting orderly.

What is determining BTC's action?

ETH has resistance on the 50dma and support on the trend line

I think crypto clears this and moves up but has gotta sideways a bit.

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Continuing on with the theme.

BTC price action is not making sense on a technical level.

The previous downtrend resistance has now become support for ETH.

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OK I'm ready to state that this trend has reversed and BTCUSD has now regained dominance on a technical basis over ETHUSD.

ETH price action is no longer making sense on a technical level.