롱

ETH is Close to Confirming the Start of A New Cycle

업데이트됨

Since my first analysis on the ETHBTC chart, we have followed my green scenario so far (the chart I'm using is pretty much identical). The weekly RSI had totally bottomed, so I thought this was a likely scenario. However, we're coming up to a major resistance zone right now, which is the broken triangle support. As I mentioned in my previous analysis though, ETH has a history of getting back above it. If we confirm above .041, there is a strong possibility that we will see a MAJOR wave up. However, price history doesn't necessarily have to dictate what happens now. Traders do look at these patterns though, so it's important to understand the psychology behind a potential big move up. XRP has also stagnated, and some of the smart money from those gains in the past few months has likely moved back to ETH.

On my other analysis, I was also using the ETH USD chart for reference. I provided a couple of major zones to watch for on the log chart. ETH bounced perfectly off the top of my buy zone, around $80. You can see that here:

If ETH starts a major bull run soon, it may confirm my earlier hypothesis that the next market-wide bull run would start at the earliest in January or February, 2019. Let's see what happens! The bear market will likely continue if ETH can't break out here. However, even other coins like XRP and TRX are still holding strong, and a big market breakout soon would probably look obvious on the charts in hindsight.

Potential setup:
BUY Confirmed breakout above 0.041
SELL:
Target 1 - 0.06
Target 2- 0.85
Target 3 - 0.12
Target 4 - 0.15

This is not financial advice, and I am not a professional financial advisor.

노트

Forgot to wish everyone a Happy New Year!

-Victor Cobra

노트

Also, 0.05 might be a big resistance point, since that's where the previous triangle resistance currently is. I would watch for that area as well. People who have been long from 0.025 will probably take major profits there, as it's a good 2X from where they bought.

노트

Looks like for now the resistance at 0.040 was too much. Couldn't even get to 0.041, so that's not a great sign for the market. Remember, this idea is ONLY valid IF we break out above that level soon. If not, this bear cycle will likely last longer, and we may have to even visit lower levels for ETH in USD value.

노트

Looks like we've managed to break 0.040, but the rest of the market looks pretty feeble. Probably waiting for the break of 0.041. This next day should be very interesting! ETH's price action here will likely determine the next direction for the market.

노트

Things are starting to look pretty bullish, but we need to have a confirmed breakout. Certainly have good enough volume for ETH to do so. A failure here obviously wouldn't be good. Let's see what happens.

노트

And there it goes!

노트

This is the resistance zone. Needs to break out and hold above the red line.

노트

Bitcoin and other alts are not following yet, so this means we need to wait for a bigger break up. We are JUST touching that red line. If we fail here, we are likely to see some more downside.

노트

JUUUUUST touching it. If we confirm above (0.041300 - 0.041400) one can go long with a stop loss below 0.03900 or 0.038, depending on your risk tolerance.

노트

Here we go!

노트

Still no follow through from Bitcoin. Actually looks pretty iffy. We need to hold this level and continue higher soon, or else the big sellers will start to step in, as people who bought ETH at the recent low will decide to take larger profits. We're about 100% up right now in USD value. Still, a good long opportunity as long as you set your stop losses.

노트

I think if we break up here, Bitcoin is going to lose a bunch of its market dominance.

노트

We pretty much retraced that entire mini-pump by Bitcoin, so we really need buyers to step in soon with more conviction. Signing off for the night. As I said, we need to hold this current area and move up to confirm the start of the new cycle.

노트

If big sellers step in here, ETH will most likely not be staying above its uptrend line, and the bear market will continue.

노트

Failed at the resistance so far. I had a feeling this would happen, since we didn't see any follow through from Bitcoin. Some other prominent alts are making moves, like Litecoin, and TRX (been strong for months now). Overall, these are mixed signals. We could just be gearing up for a break through this resistance. On the other hand, bears might take this failed breakout opportunity to push us back down to lower levels again.

노트

If we drop, this will confirm a bearish rising wedge pattern, with an immediate target between 34000 and 35000

노트

During a pullback, as long as Bitcoin doesn't drop much, we might see some other alts catch up (like XLM and NEO, for instance). This would allow more time for the market to consolidate and figure out whether or not we have indeed already seen the bottom.

노트

Looks like we've broken down out of the wedge and some other alts are catching up, as I expected. However, it's concerning that ETH hasn't confirmed its new cycle yet. This means that this rally still may be a bull trap before the next move downwards.

노트

ETH needs to consolidate and move up above 0.042 preferably.

노트

Like I said, since the ETH pullback, we've seen some other alts catch up. I named XLM specifically in that post, and it seems to be rising pretty well and recovering a bit on the XLMETH ratio. Hopefully consolidating here means ETH is just gearing up for another test of the 0.042 resistance.

노트

We were so close...but unfortunately it looks like the market doesn't want to be bullish yet. Since the breakdown of the rising wedge, we've started headed towards my green target zone. Depending on what happens if we get there, we might have fuel to retest.

노트

This was a converging resistance zone. Looks like we've confirmed a long term downtrend as well:

노트

It looks like in my original chart, I drew that triangle resistance too high. Perhaps I was using the log chart. In any case, it's still overhead and we got rejected from it.

노트

In the log scale, we hadn't reached the triangle resistance yet, but we did on the linear chart. This shows the important of still using the linear chart when projecting triangle resistances. The log chart is good for predicting bottoms and tops over much larger timeframes, I think. Either way, we had a resistance in that area.
Right now, if bulls can continue to defend this purple line support, we could have enough fuel to break out.

노트

As I suggested, we've seen a pullback to this area, as it was the immediate target for the rising wedge breakdown. The market unfortunately wasn't able to follow through.

노트

Still in the green pullback zone for the rising wedge target. If we hold here, we could potentially test the triangle resistance in orange again (near .039). A breakout of that line would signify the end of ETH's bearish cycle.

노트

This is starting to look more like it was a market-wide bear trap. A lot of coins were taken below their supports on low volume, but are now back above them with increasing volume. If ETH can sustain this green zone, it'll be a sign that we can move higher and test that overhead resistance again

노트

This needs an update. Perhaps I'll just make a new post, but we are VERY close to breaking out of our bear market downtrend. We'll likely see a huge surge in price if this happens. My original idea is very likely to play out, it just took a bit longer than I expected originally, but it gave me the opportunity to accumulate a bit more. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but things are starting to FINALLY look bullish market-wide.