Mean Reversion + Alternative Long Set-Up MES

🔁 MES Mean Reversion Setup – Fade the Gamma Pin
• Trend Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish
• Entry Zone: $6,012–$6,016
• Stop-Loss: $6,020
• TP1 / TP2: $5,998 / $5,985
• R:R Ratio: ~1:2
• Confidence Score: 7.5/10
• Reasoning:

Price is stalling inside top of Fib zone and SpotGamma’s gamma ceiling.

Vol is crushed and mean reversion dominates without fresh upside catalyst.

Clean rejection of 6,012 area intraday offers high-conviction fade down to VWAP zones and liquidity pools under 6,000.

⚠️ Alternative Long Setup – Only on Break + Hold of 6,020
• Trend Bias: Bullish breakout continuation
• Entry Zone: $6,022–$6,025
• Stop-Loss: $6,015
• TP1 / TP2: $6,050 / $6,075
• R:R Ratio: ~1.5:1
• Confidence Score: 6.5/10
• Reasoning:

Would signal breach of gamma wall (unusual without major news).

Requires follow-through volume and tape support from HIRO or strong opening drive.

🧠 Key Notes Going Into the Week:
SPX pinned at 6,000 = no trend yet, just controlled chop.

JPM 5,905 call (June 30 expiry) still anchoring downside gamma. If MES > 6,012 holds on volume, prepare for potential chase.

Next macro catalyst: Wednesday’s CPI (6/11). Until then, expect low realized vol and grind behavior.