SP500 ES Weekly Recap | ATH Deviation → Pullback or Powell Pump?

7월 13일

Overview:

ES made a new all-time high last week, sweeping the previous high with strong momentum.

However, the move ended up being a deviation, and the price quickly reversed — suggesting short-term exhaustion.

Bearish Scenario (Baseline):
🔻 Rejection from ATH
🔻 Possible retracement targets:

• 12H Swing Low (turquoise line)
  
• Weekly Fair Value Gap (purple zone)
  

I believe a pullback into those levels could provide bullish continuation setups for new highs. I’ll look for LTF confirmation once price reaches those zones.

Bullish Scenario (Catalyst-Driven):
🚨 If Fed Chair Powell resigns this week (a circulating macro rumor), the market may not wait for retracement.

This could lead to an aggressive breakout, driving ES and risk assets straight into new ATHs again.

Plan:
✅ Watch for LTF confirmation after pullback
✅ Stay open to both scenarios
✅ Focus on HTF bullish structure as long as key levels hold

7월 17일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음