ES (SPX) - Analyses - Key zones - Trade Setups for Tue, Sep 16

Bias: BUY DIPS into 6653–6643. Continuation long on 15m acceptance ≥ 6722–6726 with a 5m hold. Counter-trend short only on a clean 15m rejection at 6722–6726 (2.0R gate).

Why bullish bias (even with short fade allowed)

So, here’s why I’m leaning bullish (but I’m cool with a short fade now and then):

First off, when you check out the higher time frame (HTF), the trend is up. It’s usually a better bet to buy when prices dip rather than trying to call the top.
Then there's the risk situation: if we look at support around 6638–6643 and resistance levels at 6678/6700, we can set up for a nice 2R–3R trade with tight stops based on the 15-minute chart.
As for shorts, we’re going against the trend here. The only reason to short would be if we hit major resistance around 6722–6726. But if we don’t see a proper rejection, I’m not going to push it—I’ll just stick to going long.

Setups:
Long — Dip Buy (primary)
• Zone: 6653–6658 (Support-Initial) → 6638–6643 (Support-Next).
• Trigger: 15m reclaims support (body back above) → 5m re-close up with HL → 1m HL entry.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6700–6706 (then trail only after TP2).

Tomorrow’s key U.S. events (ET)
• Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales — 8:30 (consumer pulse; can move index futures).
• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization — 9:15.
• NAHB Housing Market Index — 10:00.
• Import/Export Price Indexes — 8:30.
• Treasury bill auctions (4- & 8-week; supply headline).
• FOMC (two-day) begins Tue; decision & SEP/dot plot Wed.
• Monthlies/OPEX: Fri Sep 19 (flows can affect tape later in week).

Long — Acceptance Continuation (secondary)
• Flip condition: 15m full-body ≥ 6722–6726 and 5m holds ≥ 6720–6722.
• Entry: 6721–6723 HL retest.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6760–6765 → 6804–6808.

Short — Rejection Fade (counter-trend, extremes only)
• Zone: Resistance — Major 6722–6726 (or 6700–6706 if Major remains untagged).
• Trigger: 15m sweep & body back inside → 5m LH re-close → 1m fail/reclaim sell.
• SL: 15m sweep-high +0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6653–6658 → 6638–6643.