S&P 500 & US10Y

2022년 10월 24일

Fundamental :

10/21/2022 | 19:24
US equities surged mid-day on speculation about the extent of monetary policy tightening (thus media speculation about the path of interest rates after November).

Treasury (bond markets) yields fell following a Wall Street Journal report that some Federal Reserve officials are no longer comfortable with the pace of interest rate hikes.

The Fed has raised its target funds rate by 300 basis points since it began tightening policy this year. The probability of the Fed raising rates in November by 75 basis points is over 92%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

“Hope that the Fed can temper or take their foot off the accelerator slightly helps the market,” said Andre Bakhos, managing member at Ingenium Analytics.

The US Dollar Index depreciated 0.8% to 112. The greenback weakened 2% against the Japanese yen to 147.27, falling from its highest level in about three decades.

10/21/2022 | 22:50
The S&P 500 index is up 4.7% weekly as positive third-quarter results drive strong gains, particularly in the energy, technology and materials sectors.

This week's advance was driven by quarterly earnings that beat analysts' average estimates. Even as companies report challenges such as inflation and supply chain issues, many show they have still managed to beat street consensus estimates.

That contributed to a relief rally after stocks fell in the weeks leading up to the results on worries about the impact of macro issues including inflation.

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose this week, led by an 8.1% jump for energy, 6.5% for technology and 6.1% for materials. Other strong gains included consumer discretionary, up 5.6%, and communication services, up 5%. The smallest increase was recorded by utilities, up 1.9%.

10/21/2022 | 22:50
Wall Street ends higher driven by hopes of a slowdown in monetary tightening.

Some Fed officials have signaled their willingness to debate whether and how to signal a plan for a smaller rate hike in December, according to the WSJ.

San Francisco Regional Fed Chair Mary Daly said the Fed should avoid pushing the US economy into an "unprovoked downturn" by tightening monetary policy too much.

Stocks rise on Friday as the media report fuels optimism that the Fed's stance is easing.

Technics:

Range and MMA20/MMA50 broken on the rise this Friday 21st by 4 candlesticks (on a 4H vision) then rebound at the $3820.0 level.

The Average Directional Index is below 25 which indicates a slide in the price of the asset in the short term (ADX based on a MA of a 14-day range), but is in the process of increasing.

Bearish short-term momentum pointing to an upcoming temporization zone, an idea reinforced by a Stochastic indicator above 80 (indicating an overbought zone).
In addition, there is high Volume at levels below the new support line ($3730.0), although this volume is mostly representative of the buying force.

Money management:

1 position BUY on US10Y
1 position BUY on S&P 500