Channel Hold or Channel Fold? Emini SPX

업데이트됨

Tested channel after 8:30 numbers. A hold today and rally would be very bullish a fail underneath and a retest of the channel from underneath would likely be bearish. No decision until after cash opens and even then expect a lot of trickery. PUT/CALL is bearish so another swing up would not surprise me but I'm going to let price action decide.

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Starting to lose the channel, cash session may come up to test it if it's much lower.

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Sort of a picasso like head and shoulders, if it plays out (BIG IF) then the target is around 3650 - also a support level

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at open, I expect another test of the neckline. Above 3750 again and it will start to look like a bullish reversal.

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shouldn't have said "expect" in the last chart - but rather "watching out for"

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Trying to hold onto the channel, I still think they will move up to surprise shorts before a larger move down, but that can be wrong. Just waiting here, still short aapl and spy but not heavy.

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Channel lost, they couldn't hold it and make a rally first. Technical traders will see this as very bearish.

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On SPX cash we really haven't broken the channel trendline and it bothers me that this is the case. It is very possible this is just a B of an ABC and so I want to urge caution. It looks more bearish on futures, but when I see discrepancies like this I get cautious.

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SPY looking similar - a close today above 368 on spy and I would urge caution for shorts into next week.

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IF they recapture 3730 today on futures the daily candle will look like a false breakdown and we go higher likely next week. I will update if that happens.