Daily Market Prep:
A routine analysis for the day ahead.
Monthly Analysis:
/ES one time-framing lower. Visible excess at the highs.
Weekly Analysis:
/ES one time-framing lower. Visible excess at the highs.
Daily Analysis:
/ES went from bear to balance back to bear again after Friday’s break was followed by value and acceptance of initial downmove (Feb 28) spike. Now, the market has hit the 61.80% retracement zone from the Mar 3 high to Mar 9 low.
Profile Analysis:
Value lower; Monday’s down-move confirmed by increased volume and bearish internals.
Reference List:
Overnight High 2878.5
Overnight Low 2695.5
October Swing Low 2855
3/6 Low, 3/2 Open 2899
FIB Target at 2873
VPOC at 2928
50% Gap Fill 2867
Scenarios:
Up-day. The 50% gap fill is a good target on larger gaps. If value does not get to unchanged (e.g., current and prior day value areas overlap each other), then expect a late-day sell-off. Noting overnight high and low. If the market can’t make it over the high (e.g., look-above and fail, that is a short point). Pay attention to rounded bottoms as people get too-oversold (i.e., when people get too short and the market fails to move lower, then you have everyone covering and you rocket to the upside). Bearish $VOLD would be 10:1, $ADD -2000, $TICK -1000.
Overnight Inventory:
Biased to the long side with price outpacing value.
Market Open:
Opening out of balance, in relation to Monday’s range. Large gap to be followed by erratic morning trade as players digest the move. Usually not a good day to fade. If we continue to move higher above the 61.80% retracement, then a move to last week’s balance area is not too far fetched.
A routine analysis for the day ahead.
Monthly Analysis:
/ES one time-framing lower. Visible excess at the highs.
Weekly Analysis:
/ES one time-framing lower. Visible excess at the highs.
Daily Analysis:
/ES went from bear to balance back to bear again after Friday’s break was followed by value and acceptance of initial downmove (Feb 28) spike. Now, the market has hit the 61.80% retracement zone from the Mar 3 high to Mar 9 low.
Profile Analysis:
Value lower; Monday’s down-move confirmed by increased volume and bearish internals.
Reference List:
Overnight High 2878.5
Overnight Low 2695.5
October Swing Low 2855
3/6 Low, 3/2 Open 2899
FIB Target at 2873
VPOC at 2928
50% Gap Fill 2867
Scenarios:
Up-day. The 50% gap fill is a good target on larger gaps. If value does not get to unchanged (e.g., current and prior day value areas overlap each other), then expect a late-day sell-off. Noting overnight high and low. If the market can’t make it over the high (e.g., look-above and fail, that is a short point). Pay attention to rounded bottoms as people get too-oversold (i.e., when people get too short and the market fails to move lower, then you have everyone covering and you rocket to the upside). Bearish $VOLD would be 10:1, $ADD -2000, $TICK -1000.
Overnight Inventory:
Biased to the long side with price outpacing value.
Market Open:
Opening out of balance, in relation to Monday’s range. Large gap to be followed by erratic morning trade as players digest the move. Usually not a good day to fade. If we continue to move higher above the 61.80% retracement, then a move to last week’s balance area is not too far fetched.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
