EFINITY(EFI) bullish long-term with immediate downside potential

2023년 2월 6일

Hey fellow analysts, EFI has had a fascinating 100% run in the past month. It broke some significant resistances on its way up which fueled its short-term rally. Time for some serious correction to cement future growth, eh? :-)
As you can see on the chart, EFI broke out of the fallng wedge that formed after the significant price drop from it ATH levels. This is good news as this pattern signals a potential trend reversal.

The price ran straight up to between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone (aka "Fib Golden Zone" or "Fib Golden Pocket") of the higher-time-frame downtrend and got rejected significantly. This may signal a trend continuation, ie further bearishness BUT checking more thoroughly you can see a flag forming, which is pointing in the direction of the flagpole trend (yellow dotted parallalel lines). That again signals a higher chance of trend reversal! (flags building counter trend to the flagpole signal potential trend-continuation).

So we have both bullish and bearish signals on the chart but based on the previous breakout form the trend-reversing wedge I would expect a breakout from this trend-reversing flag too. Am I expecting it in the short-run? No way. To be fair, I would not be surprised to see price back-testing on the blue resistane (that could turn support now). I can see that scenario as a good opportunity to scoop up some more Efinity tokens. If the macro environment sours, it could even go as low as the flag's lower trendline. As for the short term, the quick fall in price has brought us back to the short-term runup's Fib Golden Zone. It is yet to be seen if this zone holds the price. If it does than a short-term continuation of the bullish run-up may continue. I would be more assured if we saw a longer mild correction first.

With macro data still not looking very reassuring, with the markets running up despite Fed chairman J.Powell's warnings of their intention to avoid market prices running up (as that would lead to an increase in inflation), with the job market being ever tighter, near record-low levels, I still see the menace of a recession looming over the US market - and consequently all proxy markets such as the EU for eample. So if I could then I would advise against taking any position right now in EFI but would keep a close eye on either the breaking of the flag pattern or the retest of the short term resistance or even the flag's lower trendline to do some more buys. But I cannot give such advice, I only ponder my own potential actions here. ;-)

Take care, do not forget cryptos are highly speculative and have yet to prove themselves in the world. Never invest more in the sector than you can afford to lose!

2023년 2월 6일

노트

SORRY, I MADE A MISTAKE!
I place the short-term Fibonacci retracement in an inverse position. The correct placement would draw the Fib Golden Zone between 0.110 (0.5) and 0.103 (0.618), still the short-term bullish backtest is valid if the price stays within or above this zone.