EFERT Breakout & Reversal: Chart Analysis & Trade Strategies

7월 13일

Current Price: 168.00 PKR
Resistance Levels: Weak High: Around 175 PKR
Support Levels:

• Strong Low: Around 145 PKR
  
• Intermediate Support: Around 155 PKR
  

Trend:
The stock has shown a recent uptrend with a sharp rise from the lows. The consolidation phase appears to be occurring between 160 PKR and 170 PKR.

Report Insights:

Earnings Expectations: Expected EPS for 2QCY24 is 3.85 PKR, which is a 52% decline QoQ. Expected DPS is 4.0 PKR for 2QCY24.
Operational Challenges: Decline in sales volume due to the Enven plant's turnaround until mid-Jun-2024. Net revenue is expected to decline by 43% QoQ.
Market Performance: EFERT has outperformed the KSE100 Index with a 49% gain YTD.

Trade Strategy for Engro Fertilizers Ltd (EFERT):
Breakout Trade:
Entry: 175 PKR
TP1: 185 PKR (5.11%)
TP2: 200 PKR (13.64%)
SL: 170 PKR (3.41%)
RR Ratio: 1.5 (TP1), 3.53 (TP2)

Reversal Trade:
Entry: 155 PKR
TP1: 170 PKR (9.68%)
TP2: 185 PKR (19.35%)
SL: 150 PKR (3.23%)
RR Ratio: 3 (TP1), 6 (TP2)

Key Trade Confirmation Points:
Volume: Look for increased volume on breakout above 176 PKR or on dip buying at 155 PKR.
Candlestick Patterns: Watch for bullish reversal patterns near support levels or strong bullish candles on breakout levels.
Market Sentiment: Keep an eye on overall market trends and any news specific to the fertilizer sector or EFERT.

Confluences:
Sector Performance: The fertilizer sector's relative strength compared to the KSE100 Index supports a bullish outlook.
Dividend Announcement: A confirmed dividend of 4.0 PKR/share could boost investor confidence.
Technical Indicators: Use RSI, MACD, or moving averages to confirm entry points and momentum.