Dollar index is back above 23.6% Fibo of Apr 2008 low-Dec 2015 rally.
But remember, we have non-farm payrolls due for release along with wage growth figures. Dollar revival would require scenario 1 as discussed here
Lets have a look at what lead indicators say with regards to NFP
Points in favor of strong NFP
Points in favor of weak NFP
Comments – ADP was a shocker, but ISM non-manufacturing is a much strong lead indicator for NFP. Hence, we may see actual figure beat estimated figure of 200K.
However, dollar bulls need strong wage price inflation.
- The hourly chart shows a breach of minor rising trend line, but also note a possible bullish crossover between 50-MA and 200-MA on hourly.
But remember, we have non-farm payrolls due for release along with wage growth figures. Dollar revival would require scenario 1 as discussed here
Lets have a look at what lead indicators say with regards to NFP
Points in favor of strong NFP
- ISM non-manufacturing employment index clocked a 4-month high in April
- Four-week moving average of jobless claims stay near multi-decade low
- Continuing claims dropped to 16-year low
- ISM manufacturing employment index hit 4-month high as well
Points in favor of weak NFP
- ADP private sector job additions slowed to 156K from 194K.
Comments – ADP was a shocker, but ISM non-manufacturing is a much strong lead indicator for NFP. Hence, we may see actual figure beat estimated figure of 200K.
However, dollar bulls need strong wage price inflation.
