Don't be mad at the truth

Going to ruffle some feathers with this one...

Back in 2021 the cryptocurrency investing thesis was loud and clear: The US Dollar was going to fail and cryptocurrency would be the only sound money. Cryptocurrency was believed to be a hedge against the sure inflation coming. The most extreme analysis was that the end of the US Dollar hegemony was near at end. Investors saw this as the contrarian narrative. The problem is that the cryptocurrency market itself is still definitively niche. A commonly held opinion in a niche market is still consensus in that market. And the consensus in markets is often wrong (or early, but indistinguishable).

Despite consumer price inflation domestically at its highest level in most of our lifetimes... the world still wants to own US Dollars. If this is a transient phenomenon, if we are approaching multi-decades high resistance, is unknown to us now. The truth, for now, is in the price.

Most people derive comfort from consensus. They seek to consume confirming narratives and biases and consider themselves informed. This perceived knowledge becomes extra dangerous when it is incorrectly perceived to be contrarian.