Dollar Index clears resistance

2월 5일

Friday saw the release of blow-out Non-Farm Payroll data. Payrolls rose 353,000 in January, way above the 180,000 expected, while prior updates were also revised significantly higher. The strong jobs data provided more evidence of the robustness of the US economy, despite the Fed continuing to hold interest rates at their highest levels since 2001. The news made it even more likely that the Federal Reserve would hold off from cutting rates at its next meeting in March. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, investors reckon the first cut will now come in May. The dollar rallied sharply, and has risen again this morning. There’s been a period of sideways consolidation following the dollar rally which began at the end of last year. The Dollar Index is now at its highest level since mid-November and trading a touch above resistance at 104.00. If it can build on this over the next few trading sessions and hold all attempts to break back below 104.00, then there’s the potential for further upside. Under the current dynamic, this dollar strength is weighing on dollar-denominated commodities like gold and silver, and undermining the ‘safe haven’ argument for holding both precious metals.