The weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a weakly bullish near-pin candlestick last week, after previously rejecting the resistance level identified at 12257 three weeks ago. Note how this key resistance level has held again – in fact, it held just after the FOMC release some weeks ago when it was tested, which may be a bearish sign. While this decline is not enough to invalidate the long-term trend (the price is still well above its levels from 3 and 6 months ago), it is very notable that there is clearly strong resistance here, which is having impact. This suggests that despite the long-term bullish trend, we may now have experienced a major bearish reversal. However, it is also worth noting that the price is now very close to a major support level at 12150 which continues to hold, so we may be seeing a consolidation between 12150 and 12257.
Overall, I would not look towards the USD as a key driver for any trades over the coming week.
Overall, I would not look towards the USD as a key driver for any trades over the coming week.