DOW - Bear Market Rally Thoughts

2022년 6월 22일Bears have had not had so much fun and confidence since 2008 as the Inflation/recession combo and aggressive rate hikes keeps the bad news for stocks rolling in.

Relief rallies will come from oversold conditions but also understanding the narratives driving the selling will help spot the reversal stories, we had one yesterday from large drop in Oil and inflation expectations but the rally only lasted 1 day and quickly the bears have taken back control.

A more serious pivot would be 1-2 months of US CPI dropping and if Oil continues to fall this is likely but it will take a bit of time. US Yields if they drop back more could also turn the market but would have to get back under 3.0% and we in middle of hiking so that is likely further down the road.

Ukraine Peace talks, China Trade Tariff reduction all possible major stories that could prompt a large relief here.

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