This chart appears pretty self explanatory to me... if you're holding DOGE, now may be a good time to exchange it for BTC. If you're not holding DOGE, then you may be better off buying BTC. Note that the last time DOGE saw a spike of this magnitude was right before BTC began it's parabolic expansion to the 2017 ATH. Some might argue that it looks like BTC is closer to the action around the 2017 ATH but let's take a closer look:
- The last spike of this magnitude in the DOGEBTC pair came after a prolonged descent, followed by exponential rise in BTC.
- A second spike came right after BTC's ATH. Perhaps DOGE is the canary in the coal mine...
- 2017 alt season began around the same time that DOGE peaked.
- Relative to BTC, DOGE has consistently lost value over time. It has no cap on distributions so the supply is constantly increasing, which means the value has no reason to go up over time. We can see that it always falls back to around 20 satoshi; several times over the last several years.
That said, volume on the pair is nowhere near where it was at the last big spike. This could be an indication that volume has yet to reach it's peak but I'm skeptical that this volume measurement doesn't include all market activities. In any case, the value of DOGE and the light volume make it ripe for pump-and-dump. It seems to me the only thing it has going for it is Elon's tweets. Who knows? In the current market environment, that may be enough to keep the momentum going...
BTC has had a great run and will likely run some more. It has a solid foundation with lots of support. DOGE has a stated utility but I don't see it actually being used in the real world. Maybe I'm not looking in the right place... This recent movement indicates to me that interest in crypto is rising, which is a good thing. However, there are far more interesting projects to invest in and perhaps alt season is just beginning.
- The last spike of this magnitude in the DOGEBTC pair came after a prolonged descent, followed by exponential rise in BTC.
- A second spike came right after BTC's ATH. Perhaps DOGE is the canary in the coal mine...
- 2017 alt season began around the same time that DOGE peaked.
- Relative to BTC, DOGE has consistently lost value over time. It has no cap on distributions so the supply is constantly increasing, which means the value has no reason to go up over time. We can see that it always falls back to around 20 satoshi; several times over the last several years.
That said, volume on the pair is nowhere near where it was at the last big spike. This could be an indication that volume has yet to reach it's peak but I'm skeptical that this volume measurement doesn't include all market activities. In any case, the value of DOGE and the light volume make it ripe for pump-and-dump. It seems to me the only thing it has going for it is Elon's tweets. Who knows? In the current market environment, that may be enough to keep the momentum going...
BTC has had a great run and will likely run some more. It has a solid foundation with lots of support. DOGE has a stated utility but I don't see it actually being used in the real world. Maybe I'm not looking in the right place... This recent movement indicates to me that interest in crypto is rising, which is a good thing. However, there are far more interesting projects to invest in and perhaps alt season is just beginning.
