Here’s a 12M chart of the Dow. Before the Great Crash of 1929, the Dow bounced strong off the midline in 1922 before reaching out a peak at the top line of the trend channel, and then making a sharp reversal across the midline straight to the bottom channel, hitting its low in 1932 before the damage was done.
Turn the page to the present and the chart is so closely aligned it’s hard not to at least fathom the possibility. We bounced in the midline in at the end of the financial crisis in 2009, strong rebound to the top line peaking by 2022.
Just from a basic trend analysis, this reasoning is sound for where we land, no after how difficult it is to fathom, no matter how much we like to believe the market only goes up.
Add in Global events over the past few years, the global pandemic led to financial stimulus globally that acted to numb the pain & record profits for companies across industries meant combined, more money in the most hands at the same time than ever before.
It will take years for companies to achieve growth YOY after this, now add in inflation offsetting wage increases & decreasing profit margins. Global hostilities aren’t going away, regional banks maybe be the first trigger to hit the panic button as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is already posing a detrimental risk to major companies in the US and globally. Interest rates are continuing to rise, demand is peaking, and demand will not reach the levels of the pandemic fueled by stimulus and record profits for years to come.
This isn’t an Armageddon world end analysis, this is a sound conclusion to a number of major events on the global stage.
Turn the page to the present and the chart is so closely aligned it’s hard not to at least fathom the possibility. We bounced in the midline in at the end of the financial crisis in 2009, strong rebound to the top line peaking by 2022.
Just from a basic trend analysis, this reasoning is sound for where we land, no after how difficult it is to fathom, no matter how much we like to believe the market only goes up.
Add in Global events over the past few years, the global pandemic led to financial stimulus globally that acted to numb the pain & record profits for companies across industries meant combined, more money in the most hands at the same time than ever before.
It will take years for companies to achieve growth YOY after this, now add in inflation offsetting wage increases & decreasing profit margins. Global hostilities aren’t going away, regional banks maybe be the first trigger to hit the panic button as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is already posing a detrimental risk to major companies in the US and globally. Interest rates are continuing to rise, demand is peaking, and demand will not reach the levels of the pandemic fueled by stimulus and record profits for years to come.
This isn’t an Armageddon world end analysis, this is a sound conclusion to a number of major events on the global stage.