Dow Theory - DJIA and DJTA Clash to Signal Bearish Future
*Yellow = 200 EMA | Blue = 100 EMA
This video goes over the divergence between the
DJI
and
DJT
. Currently, the DJIA is trending upwards, setting new highs, and lows. However, contrary to this movement, the DJTA is moving downwards heading towards a trendline shown in the video, but could very easily break through that trendline.
Why do I care?
In 1929, several months before the flash crash and the official start of the Great Depression, divergence indicated by Dow Theory helped forecast bearish price action. This is outlined in the Intelligent Investor. Part of Dow Theory states that if either the DJIA or DJTA starts moving in a direction in contradiction of the other, the index whose movement has not yet transitioned will begin to do so. In this case, that means that the DJIA should start to trend further downward.
On the weekly charts of both indices, the RSI shows obvious bearish divergence moving in confluence with the hypothesis presented by Dow Theory.
This could mean short term breaks of trendlines and longer-term moves to lower supports around 21 000 - 22 000 price range for the DJIA or lower.
Internationally, we've seen global growth in regard to Europe (eg. Germany's poor GDP report), China's poor manufacturing, the inverted yield curve, and greater bearish sentiment as a product of Trump and his trade war. These factors along with this analysis indicate looming bearish movement, but also the potential to BUY more stocks as they become cheaper and become bargains.
Good Luck Traders!
This video goes over the divergence between the
DJI
and
DJT
. Currently, the DJIA is trending upwards, setting new highs, and lows. However, contrary to this movement, the DJTA is moving downwards heading towards a trendline shown in the video, but could very easily break through that trendline. Why do I care?
In 1929, several months before the flash crash and the official start of the Great Depression, divergence indicated by Dow Theory helped forecast bearish price action. This is outlined in the Intelligent Investor. Part of Dow Theory states that if either the DJIA or DJTA starts moving in a direction in contradiction of the other, the index whose movement has not yet transitioned will begin to do so. In this case, that means that the DJIA should start to trend further downward.
On the weekly charts of both indices, the RSI shows obvious bearish divergence moving in confluence with the hypothesis presented by Dow Theory.
This could mean short term breaks of trendlines and longer-term moves to lower supports around 21 000 - 22 000 price range for the DJIA or lower.
Internationally, we've seen global growth in regard to Europe (eg. Germany's poor GDP report), China's poor manufacturing, the inverted yield curve, and greater bearish sentiment as a product of Trump and his trade war. These factors along with this analysis indicate looming bearish movement, but also the potential to BUY more stocks as they become cheaper and become bargains.
Good Luck Traders!