교육

Definitions: Every type of decline in price

업데이트됨

Understanding the definitions. Here they are, well this is my own definition, but look into any book it will be quite similar.
I will post examples to show why that makes sense.
First, this applies to anything that has enough participants, and enough market cap. I do not have an exact number, but if something is not public or next to impossible to trade kind of "secret" or "underground" and has a market cap of 25 million, rules do not apply. If something is a NYZE listed company with a market cap of 500 million it applies. Applies to gold, does not apply to granular piss (actually maybe it does as people are really buying this stuff and using it well idk but let's just focus on anything that has lets say a mcap of at least 500 million, the definition could be pushed to anything over 2 billion to be "safe").

The time span for declines is 1 to 2 quarters.
The definition will be different for FX, numbers are smaller, and for crypto, numbers are bigger like 25% for Bitcoin is just a correction.

Here are the different categories - truer definitions would use percent drops compared to average market volatility:

Correction: 10% decline
Bear market: 20% decline
Crash: 35-60% decline
MegaCrash: 60%-80% decline (less than once in a lifetime)
Death: 80% decline
Ponzi: 90% decline

Here is the example of a correction:

Here are examples of a bear market:

Here are examples of market crashes:

Here is a mega crash:

Here is a death:

Here are a few examples of ponzis :):

1- Every single stock Jordan Belfort has ever participated in.
2-

10-

11-

12- Well any stock or crypto you find in a "hot stock" list that is "very cheap" and "a great buy"

노트

The initial selloff often gives an idea of where it will bottom.
Markets respect certain structures.
Well I am not really saying anything new here. Here is the example for the Dow.

The 4 waves thing is new thought I think. Hey if this gets famous can we call it 1.0151515 theory? I prefer to be called that way, MrRenev isn't as good imo.

It's like ABC 3 times I think? Whatever.

BagHODLers usually have too much pain after 4 move down I guess. Probably the same on the way up.
"Never give up never surrender 'they' won't break me"
"Never give up never surrender 'they' won't break me"
"Never give up never surrender 'they' won't break me"
"I've HAD IT!"

There's probably something deep in people instinct that dates back millions of years, like non intelligent animals can count up to 3, but after 3 they just think of it as "alot" experiments have been made on the subject, so I guess people know how to deal with 1 2 3 but after 3 they just lose it.

Here with gold:

Here with Nikkei:

Here with the great IPO scam of 1999:

Here with Oil:

Apple:

So this can be a tool, but often you mostly can use it in hindsight, and as confirmation of the bottom of a long bear market.

노트

There is 1 exception thought. Worthless garbage that is not driven by fundamentals.
Do we have an example? Oh yes we do! Bit-con! Also Tulips, by the way tulips followed exactly the same pattern I think but I don't have a chart precise enough to make sure.

This dumb thing is dead anyway, tested my patience long enough. If I can't make money off it then nobody can.

BTC 2014

Bitcoin ponzi today, following fib levels precisely because it's a scam and absolutely worthless.

Bit-con is beyond easy I could become a billionaire with my eyes closed if it kept moving, since the market has 0 intrisic value it is purely emotional so it is following very predictable patterns almost to the very dollar. Sadly, I learned too late about this scam, and free money is over. It still has no value, and in 2017 real traders joined and milked it, there is no way it will keep moving in 1.618 EXACTLY now that every one knows about it. Sad.

Nice intresic value. The severe imbeciles that argue that BTC has fundamental value based on its electricity cost and mining and think they sound smart probably struggle to add 2 numbers. Apes.

Here is how fundamental driven Buttcoin is:

By the way, only Bit-con respects fibs exactly. Nice scam. Whales playing or something.
Other crypto's (that I checked) just are pure pump and dump schemes or full random scams.
ETH which is used (mostly for casino's and scams) does not follow fib levels EXACTLY, not at all actually.

CMC does not have the same volume.

Followed an EW XYZWJWHJSHJSJ or as I call it 4 drives down, with the last one going the further.
Looking alot like capitulation & accumulation...

The flippening?

Damn this is becoming a crypto idea now XD
Nikkei teaches us:

OR maybe it will end up like this:

Hindsight tool XD

It only works for Bitcoin because it is 100% worthless overhyped garbage and very heavilly manipulated.

If Dow continues down, it could end up looking something like this. If it does I sure would want to invest in whatever company looks good.