Could Dow Jones be doing a bearish Wolfe wave?
I won't be suggesting a buy or a sell here but Dow Jones Index is currently forming quite a convincing bearish Wolfe wave pattern.
We have been forming a rising wedge (green channel) for a while since mid-late 2019 and now that the 6th extension has failed above the rising wedge resistant and breaking below the channel support, by using a bearish Wolfe wave analysis, the EPA line can be drawn as shown in pink (see simplified Wolfe wave example in link attached). This suggests a potential drop to around 24000 so as long as the price remains under the channel support.
If you're looking to short then the SL would be above the channel support (~27600) with TL at the EPA line. However, be careful with shorting here as the index is currently at 50EMA TF weekly, so I do expect a short recovery before heading toward 24000 if it is to continue its downward spiral.
If this bearish Wolfe wave scenario does play out, we are potentially getting into a deep C wave as the Elliott wave count for the rising wedge formed can be counted as B wave (in this case it did make a new high - aka a "bull trap"). This means a potential toward and even beyond the 2018 low. But as I mentioned, we are right at the 50EMA weekly chart now so let's wait and see where this will go.
I haven't seen Wolfe wave developing on a big TF before. I find that interesting and so just like to log this down here as neutral.
Wolfe wave example: https://ibb.co/Nn5dyF7
What do you think?
We have been forming a rising wedge (green channel) for a while since mid-late 2019 and now that the 6th extension has failed above the rising wedge resistant and breaking below the channel support, by using a bearish Wolfe wave analysis, the EPA line can be drawn as shown in pink (see simplified Wolfe wave example in link attached). This suggests a potential drop to around 24000 so as long as the price remains under the channel support.
If you're looking to short then the SL would be above the channel support (~27600) with TL at the EPA line. However, be careful with shorting here as the index is currently at 50EMA TF weekly, so I do expect a short recovery before heading toward 24000 if it is to continue its downward spiral.
If this bearish Wolfe wave scenario does play out, we are potentially getting into a deep C wave as the Elliott wave count for the rising wedge formed can be counted as B wave (in this case it did make a new high - aka a "bull trap"). This means a potential toward and even beyond the 2018 low. But as I mentioned, we are right at the 50EMA weekly chart now so let's wait and see where this will go.
I haven't seen Wolfe wave developing on a big TF before. I find that interesting and so just like to log this down here as neutral.
Wolfe wave example: https://ibb.co/Nn5dyF7
What do you think?
코멘트:
That's 5th extension, not 6th.
매매 수동청산:
Came down all the way almost touching the EPA line but closed in green with rejection candle. I'm expecting a short term rebound and hence, close trade.