DAX Having a Difficult Time Catching a Bid, Seen As EUR Positive
There has been a clean inverse relationship in the DAX Stock Index and the EURUSD. This means that a top in the DAX has correlated with a low in the EURUSD. Since we've traded lower on the DAX from the mid-March & mid-April highs, EURUSD has pushed higher. If DAX makes another move lower, that would favor a push higher in EURUSD.
A move higher in EURUSD is highly unpopular as shown via DailyFX's Speculative Sentiment Index or SSI. The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD currently stands at -2.01 as 33% of traders are long. From a contrarian perspective, this favors a push higher in EURUSD and if the inverse relationship holds, then we'd also expect a leg lower in the DAX.
Also, an equivalent decline of the 2H 2014 in the DAX from the Mid-March / Mid-April tops would take the DAX down around 10,327. This is roughly a few hundred points north of a internal resistance turned support point from the Dec 8th, 2014 high when EURJPY peaked.
Lower high of 11,926 seen as critical resistance and a break above that level would favor EUR lower pleasing many retail traders.
A move higher in EURUSD is highly unpopular as shown via DailyFX's Speculative Sentiment Index or SSI. The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD currently stands at -2.01 as 33% of traders are long. From a contrarian perspective, this favors a push higher in EURUSD and if the inverse relationship holds, then we'd also expect a leg lower in the DAX.
Also, an equivalent decline of the 2H 2014 in the DAX from the Mid-March / Mid-April tops would take the DAX down around 10,327. This is roughly a few hundred points north of a internal resistance turned support point from the Dec 8th, 2014 high when EURJPY peaked.
Lower high of 11,926 seen as critical resistance and a break above that level would favor EUR lower pleasing many retail traders.