DAX: TOWARDS A CORRECTION

2014년 6월 4일

On a purely technical aspect, DAX is facing a heavy resistance over 9950. My personal target of FED's QE3 based on QE1+QE2+ DAX's index earning being reinvest in the market was and still is 9706. Therefore I do consider every level above 9706 excessive and overbought as it is now.
STOCH Shows clearly the signal of correction.
Since Mid March, even later early April we are on a rising wedge pattern. In between there were many double top pattern the the pull back didn't confirm and the pattern has been a confirmed raising wegde.
Having said that, we may have to include a political and macro economic data on our study.
1-ECB PResident and its staff leak the idea of a European QE based on ABS. But Draghi will not take or announce the decision on June 5th because of Germany mainly, and the situation of the market. If ECB announces a European QE now, it means that the expected and announced recovery didn't take place. But market already bought the idea of a European QE and that is why including DAX's companies dividend reinvested in the market, we came close to a 10 000 level but technically it is an illusive non sustainable level.
2-ECB President may announce a cut in the interest rate switching to negative interest rate. Private investor would withdraw there money in order to invest on the stocks.
3-G7 meeting will take place, and the economic situation will be discussed Thursday morning during the morning session in Brussels. US should confirm the tappering without any further delay.
Therefore technically speaking, DAX would face a correction ,and that correction may well even be a short term reversal in the growing trend.